Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:35:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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BD 0xbd04…a64a sports 1127 markets active 12h ago coverage 91d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialist⚠ High turnoverP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted! high turnover
Total PnL −$26 (-0%) realized +$380 · open −$406
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate55%611W / 502L
Whale WR64%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$356per market
Trades / day13.8pace
Fees−$3,888est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$1,619now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 91d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 93% −$5,218
other 5% +$1,047
world 1% −$54
politics 1% +$336
culture 0% +$110
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-10.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 100 +9.5% -0.9% 64% 62% -7.1%
≤30d 455 -11.0% -19.5% 49% 48% -21.1%
≤90d 1109 -1.4% -10.8% 55% 53% -10.3%
all 1113 -1.4% -10.8% 55% 54% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.8% 54% -10.3%
10% -19.3% 49% -18.9%
15% -27.1% 44% -26.7%
20% -34.3% 38% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 64% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -1% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$244 vs −$304 · ×0.8 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.98 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

91d coverage
Net worth$1,619
Realized+$380
Unrealized−$406
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses611 / 502
Whale WR (big bets)64%
Est. fees paid−$3,888
Open positions14
Markets (closed)1113 / 1127
History coverage91d
Avg bet$356
Trades / day13.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 14 History 1113 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz Taylor Fritz 74¢ 78¢ $225 $239 +$14 (+6%)
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees New York Yankees 52¢ 52¢ $200 $202 +$2 (+1%)
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Reds St. Louis Cardinals 48¢ 38¢ $250 $201 −$49 (-20%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Yes 77¢ 76¢ $150 $147 −$3 (-2%)
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Yes 44¢ 42¢ $150 $141 −$9 (-6%)
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Haiti 56¢ 48¢ $125 $106 −$19 (-15%)
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? No 80¢ 80¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Portugal 52¢ 50¢ $100 $97 −$3 (-3%)
Will Pamela Evette win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican primary election? Yes 81¢ 16¢ $450 $86 −$364 (-81%)
Will "Obsession" be the May film with the highest domestic gross on June 30? Yes 64¢ 96¢ $50 $75 +$25 (+49%)
Will England win on 2026-06-17? No 44¢ 44¢ $75 $74 −$1 (-1%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? No 56¢ 58¢ $50 $52 +$2 (+4%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? No 37¢ 38¢ $50 $52 +$2 (+4%)
Will Warsh say "Trump" during June Press Conference? Yes 21¢ 20¢ $50 $47 −$3 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 45 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 6.5 Corners Jun 17 $152 +$95 +63%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $252 +$90 +36%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $150 +$16 +11%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $507 +$419 +83%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 17 $102 +$98 +97%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $252 +$105 +42%
Asuncion 2: Samuel Heredia vs Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi Jun 16 $151 +$52 +34%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $252 +$121 +48%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $151 +$20 +13%
HSBC Championships: Kamil Majchrzak vs Jiri Lehecka Jun 16 $152 +$86 +57%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 16 $102 −$100 -98%
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 16 $102 −$100 -98%
Grass Court Championships: Elina Svitolina vs Anna Kalinskaya Jun 16 $177 +$88 +50%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $503 +$114 +23%
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) Jun 16 $252 +$86 +34%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 16 $127 +$101 +79%
Set Handicap: Bu (-1.5) vs Virtanen (+1.5) Jun 16 $203 −$7 -3%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 16 $152 +$102 +67%
Nottingham Open: Harriet Dart vs Katie Boulter Jun 16 $102 −$2 -2%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $151 +$28 +18%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 15 $102 −$100 -98%
Nottingham 2: Felix Gill vs Hugo Gaston Jun 15 $255 −$250 -98%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 9.5 Jun 15 $102 −$100 -98%
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs CYBERSHOKE Esports (BO3) - NODWIN Clut Jun 15 $505 +$241 +48%
Nottingham Open: Qinwen Zheng vs Maria Sakkari Jun 15 $202 +$126 +62%
Nottingham Open: Himeno Sakatsume vs Jessica Bouzas Maneiro Jun 15 $76 −$75 -98%
Nottingham Open: Ann Li vs Kimberly Birrell Jun 15 $127 −$125 -99%
Nottingham Open: Anna Blinkova vs Taylah Preston Jun 15 $202 −$200 -99%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Suzan Lamens vs Dalma Galfi Jun 15 $202 +$80 +40%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? Jun 15 $508 +$117 +23%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $310 −$6 -2%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $406 −$6 -2%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $101 +$65 +65%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 15 $152 +$160 +105%
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $252 +$81 +32%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 14 $203 −$200 -99%
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 14 $152 +$131 +86%
Poznan: Alexander Shevchenko vs Genaro Alberto Olivieri Jun 14 $606 −$165 -27%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 14 $1,408 −$1,400 -99%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? Jun 14 $500 +$83 +17%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Giovanni Mp Jun 14 $152 +$90 +60%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals Jun 14 $203 −$200 -99%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $102 +$131 +129%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $708 +$386 +55%
Karl-Anthony Towns: Points O/U 16.5 Jun 14 $508 +$534 +105%
Karl-Anthony Towns: Assists O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $355 +$345 +97%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $302 +$60 +20%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 13 $203 +$182 +90%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $102 +$126 +124%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Asuncion 2: Samuel Heredia vs Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi BUY Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi 74¢ $151 12h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals BUY Kansas City Royals 45¢ $102 13h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Los Angeles Angels 50¢ $102 13h
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees BUY Chicago White Sox 43¢ $102 13h
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 6.5 Corners BUY Under 61¢ $152 17h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 54¢ $507 21h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 44¢ $76 35h
Nottingham Open: Harriet Dart vs Katie Boulter BUY Harriet Dart 50¢ $102 35h
Set Handicap: Bu (-1.5) vs Virtanen (+1.5) BUY Virtanen 51¢ $203 35h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals BUY Kansas City Royals 45¢ $102 35h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 52¢ $101 35h
Nottingham 2: Felix Gill vs Hugo Gaston BUY Hugo Gaston 31¢ $255 35h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 48¢ $102 35h
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Cincinnati Reds 55¢ $127 35h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 73¢ $252 35h
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals BUY St. Louis Cardinals 59¢ $152 40h
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) BUY New Zealand 74¢ $252 40h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 56¢ $51 44h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 80¢ $101 44h
Nottingham Open: Himeno Sakatsume vs Jessica Bouzas Maneiro BUY Himeno Sakatsume 36¢ $76 44h
Nottingham Open: Ann Li vs Kimberly Birrell BUY Kimberly Birrell 53¢ $127 44h
Nottingham Open: Anna Blinkova vs Taylah Preston BUY Anna Blinkova 65¢ $202 44h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $252 44h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 81¢ $503 44h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? BUY Yes 2¢ $8 2d
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Suzan Lamens vs Dalma Galfi BUY Suzan Lamens 71¢ $202 2d
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Texas Rangers 48¢ $152 2d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 51¢ $203 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $157 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 80¢ $1,408 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,618.83 · official $1,618.83 (match) · 2311 history records