Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T22:35:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BD 0xbd09…a188 sports 344 markets active 2h ago coverage 97d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 96d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$8,023 (-1%) realized −$7,859 · open −$164
Gross ROI / mkt -52% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -66% what you keep after slip
Net edge-66%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate21%145W / 559L
Whale WR22%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2,310per market
Trades / day33.2pace
Fees−$4,271est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$486now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 97d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$101,976
other 0% −$2,159
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-56.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 379 -83.8% -85.3% 2% 2% -99.2%
≤30d 379 -83.8% -85.3% 2% 2% -99.2%
≤90d 637 -55.2% -59.4% 19% 19% -66.1%
all 704 -51.7% -56.3% 21% 20% -63.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover33.2 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -56.3% 20% -63.7%
10% -60.5% 20% -67.2%
15% ← realistic here -64.3% 19% -70.4%
20% -67.8% 16% -73.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -63% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -52% · $-wt -60% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 22% (≥$3,663) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -9% → late -94% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
9.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$2,144 vs −$2,390 · ×0.9 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.23 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

97d coverage
Net worth$486
Realized−$7,859
Unrealized−$164
Win rate (resolved)21%
Wins / losses145 / 559
Whale WR (big bets)22%
Est. fees paid−$4,271
Open positions2
Markets (closed)704 / 344
History coverage97d ⚠
Avg bet$2,310
Trades / day33.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 704 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Yes 47¢ 48¢ $470 $475 +$5 (+1%)
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Yes $180 $11 −$169 (-94%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 498 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Kings vs. Celtics Jun 18 $1,080 −$1,080 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Astralis (BO3) - IEM Krakow Group A Jun 18 $1,522 −$1,522 -100%
Will the New York Islanders win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 18 $40 −$40 -100%
Stars vs. Ducks Jun 18 $3,710 −$3,710 -100%
Spurs vs. Thunder Jun 18 $1,350 −$1,350 -100%
Counter-Strike: 33 vs EYEBALLERS (BO3) - IEM Atlanta: Global Qualifier Jun 18 $1,464 −$1,464 -100%
Canucks vs. Kraken Jun 18 $376 −$376 -100%
LoL: Invictus Gaming vs Oh My God (BO5) - LPL Knights Rivals Jun 18 $3,025 −$3,025 -100%
LoL: S2G Esports vs PCIFIC (BO3) - TCL Playoffs Jun 18 $122 −$122 -100%
Maple Leafs vs. Oilers Jun 18 $8,520 −$8,520 -100%
Jazz vs. Grizzlies Jun 18 $4,500 −$4,500 -100%
Ducks vs. Canucks Jun 18 $6,549 −$6,549 -100%
Panthers vs. Senators Jun 18 $2,600 −$2,600 -100%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs PARIVISION (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Group Stage Jun 18 $6,560 −$6,560 -100%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group St Jun 18 $9,234 −$9,234 -100%
Pacers vs. Clippers Jun 18 $1,200 −$1,200 -100%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Passion UA (BO3) Jun 18 $217 −$217 -100%
Men's Group C - Germany vs. Latvia Jun 18 $3,600 −$3,600 -100%
Will the Detroit Red Wings win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 18 $276 −$276 -100%
Capitals vs. Canucks Jun 18 $4,880 −$4,880 -100%
Wild vs. Canadiens Jun 18 $4,000 −$4,000 -100%
UFC 322: Cortez vs. Blanchfield (Women's Flyweight, Prelims) Jun 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Nuggets vs. Spurs Jun 18 $5,038 −$5,038 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Mavericks Jun 18 $1,890 −$1,890 -100%
Counter-Strike: paiN vs G2 (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 1 Jun 18 $3,524 −$3,524 -100%
76ers vs. Cavaliers Jun 18 $2,170 −$2,170 -100%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Liquid (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 1 Jun 18 $5,000 −$5,000 -100%
Pelicans vs. Grizzlies Jun 18 $4,580 −$4,580 -100%
Pistons vs. Spurs Jun 18 $4,300 −$4,300 -100%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs OG (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group Stage Jun 18 $1,313 −$1,180 -90%
Warriors vs. Timberwolves Jun 18 $2,242 −$2,242 -100%
Spread: Lightning (-1.5) Jun 18 $1,827 −$1,827 -100%
Hornets vs. Suns Jun 18 $6,400 −$6,400 -100%
Will the Montreal Canadiens win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 18 $28 −$28 -100%
Sharks vs. Bruins Jun 18 $6,752 −$6,752 -100%
Kings vs. Warriors Jun 18 $33 −$33 -100%
Will the Court Force Trump to Refund Tariffs? Jun 18 $4,137 −$4,186 -101%
Wizards vs. Magic Jun 18 $940 −$940 -100%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Tundra Esports (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Playoffs Jun 18 $2,240 −$2,240 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs ECSTATIC (BO3) Jun 18 $54 −$54 -100%
Bruins vs. Flames Jun 18 $230 −$230 -100%
Predators vs. Canucks Jun 18 $7,099 −$7,099 -100%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - FISSURE Universe Episode 8 Jun 18 $3,235 −$3,235 -100%
Bucks vs. Spurs Jun 18 $620 −$620 -100%
Lightning vs. Blue Jackets Jun 18 $5,844 −$5,844 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Astralis (BO3) - IEM Krakow Group A Jun 18 $573 −$573 -100%
Counter-Strike: Sinners vs fnatic (BO3) - IEM Atlanta: Global Qualifie Jun 18 $6,360 −$6,360 -100%
Blue Jackets vs. Utah Jun 18 $2,722 −$2,722 -100%
Hawks vs. Warriors Jun 18 $1,360 −$1,360 -100%
Sharks vs. Flames Jun 18 $6,822 −$6,822 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 47¢ $477 1h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes $185 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY 9z 34¢ $693 3h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 92¢ $922 4h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY 9z 52¢ $1,055 4h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL FURIA 47¢ $131 4h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY FURIA 55¢ $95 4h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY FURIA 52¢ $2 4h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY FURIA 52¢ $58 4h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY BetBoom Team 20¢ $410 8h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes $41 2d
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $215 2d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 12¢ $123 2d
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $144 2d
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes $72 2d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 43¢ $437 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 68¢ $343 3d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 21¢ $215 3d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 68¢ $343 3d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $314 3d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Team Falcons 51¢ $5 4d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Team Falcons 43¢ $437 4d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Team Falcons 70¢ $706 4d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Aurora Gaming 72¢ $145 4d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Aurora Gaming 71¢ $144 4d
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights BUY Hurricanes 53¢ $322 4d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Aurora Gaming 53¢ $215 4d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $52 4d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 30¢ $31 4d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $106 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $486.00 · official $486.00 (match) · 3500 history records