Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T06:31:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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BD 0xbd0d…1fb4 weather 939 markets active 2h ago coverage 47d ⚠
BOTnot copyable weather specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 47d only
✗ bot/MM pace (58 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,058 (-6%) realized −$1,058 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate73%668W / 247L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day57.9pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$561now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days+$17
14 days+$34
30 days−$2,976
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 84% −$336
other 7% −$605
crypto 6% −$123
world 3% −$20
culture 0% +$16
sports 0% −$30
politics 0% −$1
tech 0% −$3
economics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (58 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-12.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 88 +1.6% -8.0% 100% 2% -9.0%
≤30d 753 -19.6% -27.3% 73% 6% -32.4%
≤90d 915 -3.5% -12.7% 73% 15% -16.2%
all 915 -3.5% -12.7% 73% 15% -16.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover57.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.7% 15% -16.2%
10% ← realistic here -21.1% 12% -24.2%
15% -28.7% 10% -31.5%
20% -35.7% 9% -38.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
79% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$15 · ×0.26 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

47d coverage
Net worth$561
Realized−$1,058
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)73%
Wins / losses668 / 247
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions24
Markets (closed)915 / 939
History coverage47d ⚠
Avg bet$18
Trades / day57.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 24 History 915 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 19? No 99¢ 100¢ $99 $100 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 19? No 99¢ 99¢ $95 $95 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 24°C on June 19? No 100¢ 100¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 20°C or below on June 20? No 100¢ 100¢ $38 $38 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 30°C on June 19? No 100¢ 100¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C or below on June 19? No 99¢ 99¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+0%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $25 $25 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 20? No 100¢ 100¢ $25 $25 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on June 20? No 100¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 20? No 100¢ 99¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 28°C on June 20? No 100¢ 99¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 40°C on June 20? No 99¢ 98¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by June 30, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on June 19? No 100¢ 100¢ $14 $14 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on June 19? No 100¢ 100¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 36°C on June 20? No 100¢ 99¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 75°F or below on June 20? No 99¢ 99¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 33°C on June 19? No 99¢ 99¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C on June 19? No 100¢ 100¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 31°C on June 19? No 97¢ 99¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on June 19? No 99¢ 99¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 25°C on June 19? No 99¢ 98¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 19? No 96¢ 95¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on June 19? No 99¢ 99¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 17 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on June 18? Jun 18 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C or below on June 18? Jun 18 $80 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on June 18? Jun 18 $73 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C on June 18? Jun 18 $30 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C on June 18? Jun 18 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on June 18? Jun 18 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on June 18? Jun 18 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C or below on June 18? Jun 18 $78 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 18? Jun 18 $7 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 18? Jun 18 $6 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 18? Jun 18 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 18? Jun 18 $89 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 18? Jun 18 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 18? Jun 18 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 18? Jun 18 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 18? Jun 18 $5 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 18 $10 $0 +1%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? Jun 18 $10 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $20 $0 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $50 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on June 17? Jun 17 $109 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 17? Jun 17 $1 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 17? Jun 17 $76 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 17? Jun 17 $30 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on June 17? Jun 17 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 17? Jun 17 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 17? Jun 17 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 17? Jun 17 $35 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 13°C or below on June 17? Jun 17 $85 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C on June 17? Jun 17 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 17? Jun 17 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C or below on June 16? Jun 16 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on June 16? Jun 16 $22 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 16? Jun 16 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on June 16? Jun 16 $55 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 20°C on June 16? Jun 16 $5 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on June 16? Jun 16 $35 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C or below on June 16? Jun 16 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 16°C on June 16? Jun 16 $53 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 16? Jun 16 $70 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C on June 16? Jun 16 $25 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 16? Jun 16 $10 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 16? Jun 16 $50 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 9°C on June 16? Jun 16 $45 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 10°C on June 16? Jun 16 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 15? Jun 16 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 15? Jun 16 $10 $0 +1%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 16 $44 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 15? Jun 15 $70 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 18°C on June 15? Jun 15 $70 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 19? BUY No 99¢ $95 1h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 75°F or below on June BUY No 99¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju BUY No 100¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on Ju BUY No 99¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju BUY No 100¢ $14 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C or below on June 19? BUY No 98¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $20 1h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 20°C or below on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $38 1h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on June 19? BUY No 99¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 40°C on June 20? BUY No 99¢ $20 1h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $25 1h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 24°C on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $40 1h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 28°C on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $20 1h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 36°C on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $20 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 19? BUY No 96¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 33°C on June 19? BUY No 99¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 19? BUY No 99¢ $99 1h
Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by December SELL No 89¢ $1 14h
Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by June 30, BUY No 100¢ $10 14h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $25 16h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $73 25h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 25°C on June 19? BUY No 99¢ $5 25h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $50 25h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 18? BUY No 99¢ $10 25h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 18? BUY Yes 99¢ $5 25h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 18? BUY Yes 99¢ $5 25h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $5 25h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $6 25h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $10 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $560.92 · official $560.92 (match) · 3500 history records