Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T14:08:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BD 0xbd0d…21a9 sports 355 markets active 1h ago coverage 65d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$46 (-2%) realized −$45 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate58%194W / 142L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day7.3pace
Fees−$32est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$54now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$30
7 days−$15
14 days−$2
30 days−$12
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% −$65
other 1% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)-16.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 49 -15.0% -23.1% 55% 55% -15.2%
≤30d 134 -13.2% -21.4% 54% 54% -10.8%
≤90d 336 -7.8% -16.6% 58% 57% -11.9%
all 336 -7.8% -16.6% 58% 57% -11.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.6% 57% -11.9%
10% -24.6% 50% -20.3%
15% -31.9% 32% -28.0%
20% -38.5% 20% -35.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$6 · ×0.68 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

65d coverage
Net worth$54
Realized−$45
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses194 / 142
Est. fees paid−$32
Open positions19
Markets (closed)336 / 355
History coverage65d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day7.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 19 History 336 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Over 76¢ 76¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 Over 75¢ 74¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Over 52¢ 55¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+5%)
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 Over 72¢ 72¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Over 50¢ 50¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 Over 28¢ 28¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-2%)
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Over 32¢ 34¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+8%)
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Over 68¢ 68¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Yes 23¢ 22¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-7%)
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Yes 6¢ 5¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-11%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+16%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-7%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-11%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-11%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 7¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-24%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 79 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Tunisia O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $1 +$1 +60%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $2 +$5 +250%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $5 +$2 +36%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $5 +$3 +60%
Australia vs. Türkiye: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $1 +$1 +50%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Türkiye O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $2 +$1 +50%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 197.5 Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $5 +$2 +38%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $5 +$4 +76%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $2 +$1 +42%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $7 −$7 -98%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $5 +$1 +23%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $5 +$2 +34%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 203.5 Jun 13 $3 −$3 -99%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 209.5 Jun 13 $5 −$5 -99%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 205.5 Jun 13 $5 −$5 -99%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 202.5 Jun 13 $5 −$5 -99%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $5 +$2 +48%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $5 +$3 +60%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -99%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Switzerland O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $5 −$5 -99%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $5 −$5 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $10 +$10 +105%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -99%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $1 $0 +42%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 6.5 Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 204.5 Jun 11 $10 +$3 +26%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 212.5 Jun 11 $10 +$3 +27%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 203.5 Jun 11 $11 +$3 +24%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 207.5 Jun 11 $10 +$4 +38%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 7.5 Jun 10 $5 +$2 +48%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 213.5 Jun 10 $5 −$5 -99%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 8.5 Jun 10 $5 +$4 +84%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 201.5 Jun 10 $1 $0 +23%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 202.5 Jun 10 $1 $0 +26%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 203.5 Jun 10 $2 $0 +26%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 10 $5 +$6 +114%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 207.5 Jun 10 $10 +$4 +40%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 200.5 Jun 10 $20 +$4 +20%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 08 $2 +$3 +146%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 39m
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 72¢ $5 58m
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 68¢ $2 58m
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $2 59m
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 75¢ $10 59m
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $5 1h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 76¢ $10 1h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 28¢ $3 3h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 3h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 32¢ $2 3h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 52¢ $5 3h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 3h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Tunisia O/U 0.5 BUY Over 62¢ $1 23h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 23h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 15¢ $1 23h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 73¢ $5 23h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $2 23h
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 23h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 23h
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $1 32h
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 62¢ $5 32h
Australia vs. Türkiye: Türkiye O/U 1.5 BUY Under 66¢ $2 33h
Australia vs. Türkiye: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 66¢ $1 34h
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $5 34h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 21¢ $2 34h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 43¢ $3 34h
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 197.5 BUY Over 24¢ $10 36h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 4¢ $1 38h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 6¢ $1 38h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $54.49 · official $54.50 (match) · 721 history records