Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T00:06:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
BD 0xbd0e…3bea other 120 markets active 1h ago coverage 162d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$48 (-1%) realized −$47 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate80%95W / 24L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$49now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$159
7 days+$159
14 days+$159
30 days+$159
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 34% +$96
other 32% −$47
world 27% +$17
politics 7% −$7
culture 1% −$1
tech 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +23.7% +12.0% 100% 62% +13.8%
≤30d 8 +23.7% +12.0% 100% 62% +13.8%
≤90d 8 +23.7% +12.0% 100% 62% +13.8%
all 119 -0.2% -9.7% 80% 11% -8.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 11% -8.0%
10% -18.4% 7% -16.8%
15% -26.3% 3% -24.9%
20% -33.5% 2% -32.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +26% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
86% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$10 · ×0.31 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.22 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

162d coverage
Net worth$49
Realized−$47
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses95 / 24
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)119 / 120
History coverage162d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 119 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 0.5 Over 85¢ 84¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 18 $101 +$68 +67%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $94 +$23 +25%
Canada to score first vs. Qatar? Jun 18 $30 +$9 +29%
Canada vs. Qatar: Canada O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $50 +$5 +10%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Switzerland O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $100 +$16 +16%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $101 +$33 +33%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $23 +$2 +8%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $120 +$4 +3%
Men's Group C - USA vs. Denmark Feb 14 $44 +$1 +3%
Men's Group C - Germany vs. Denmark Feb 12 $76 −$76 -100%
Will Israel strike Iraq by February 28? Feb 01 $25 −$1 -2%
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? Feb 01 $25 −$2 -6%
Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026? Feb 01 $25 −$1 -6%
Will the US strike Syria next? Feb 01 $25 $0 -1%
US strikes Iran by February 6, 2026? Feb 01 $25 $0 +1%
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Feb 01 $104 +$2 +2%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-02-01? Feb 01 $81 −$81 -100%
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Feb 01 $186 +$6 +3%
Rangers vs. Penguins Jan 31 $205 +$9 +4%
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jan 31 $45 −$1 -1%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jan 31 $25 $0 -1%
Will Trump talk to Xi Jinping in January? Jan 31 $25 $0 +0%
Will France, UK or Germany strike Iran by January 31? Jan 30 $75 $0 +0%
US strikes Iran by January 30, 2026? Jan 30 $25 +$1 +3%
Samford Bulldogs vs. Furman Paladins Jan 30 $168 +$64 +38%
Will the US strike 4 countries in January 2026? Jan 29 $10 −$3 -32%
Trump declares a national emergency by June 30, 2026? Jan 29 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Real Madrid finish in the top 4 of the La Liga 2025–26 standings? Jan 29 $11 −$1 -9%
Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Jan 29 $10 $0 -3%
Will Russia invade another country in 2026? Jan 29 $9 $0 -1%
Will Yair Lapid be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jan 29 $10 $0 -2%
Will Trần Thanh Mẫn be the next President of Vietnam? Jan 29 $10 $0 -2%
Will "Frankenstein" win exactly 5 awards at the Oscars? Jan 29 $17 −$1 -3%
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? Jan 29 $10 $0 -2%
Will the Liberal Democratic Party win the most seats in the 2026 Japan Jan 29 $10 $0 +1%
Will André Ventura win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? Jan 29 $10 $0 +0%
Will the US next strike Iran on January 29, 2026 (ET)? Jan 29 $36 $0 +1%
Tariff increase on Canada in effect by June 30? Jan 28 $10 $0 +3%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-01-28? Jan 28 $44 −$44 -100%
Will Club Brugge KV win on 2026-01-28? Jan 28 $20 +$1 +6%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-01-28? Jan 28 $74 +$5 +7%
Will Trump talk to Pope Leo XIV in January? Jan 28 $10 $0 +2%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-01-28? Jan 28 $11 $0 +3%
Will Trump visit Greenland by March 31? Jan 28 $23 $0 -2%
100% tariff on Canada in effect by June 30? Jan 28 $20 $0 -2%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jan 28 $26 +$1 +2%
Magic vs. Cavaliers Jan 27 $33 −$22 -67%
Le Moyne Dolphins vs. Fairleigh Dickinson Knights Jan 27 $42 +$1 +1%
Will Russia strike on Kyiv municipality on January 26? Jan 27 $22 $0 -0%
Will Israel strike ≥4 countries in February 2026? Jan 26 $11 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 0.5 BUY Over 85¢ $50 1h
Spread: Canada (-1.5) SELL Canada 95¢ $169 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 99¢ $117 1h
Canada to score first vs. Qatar? SELL Yes 100¢ $39 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: Canada O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $55 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 79¢ $94 2h
Canada to score first vs. Qatar? BUY Yes 77¢ $30 2h
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY Canada 56¢ $101 2h
Canada vs. Qatar: Canada O/U 0.5 BUY Over 91¢ $50 3h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Switzerland O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $116 3h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 85¢ $134 3h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 83¢ $25 6h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 76¢ $23 6h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Switzerland O/U 0.5 BUY Over 86¢ $100 6h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 76¢ $123 6h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 73¢ $59 7h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $101 7h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 72¢ $61 7h
Men's Group C - USA vs. Denmark BUY Denmark 10¢ $13 124d
Men's Group C - USA vs. Denmark SELL Denmark $45 124d
Men's Group C - USA vs. Denmark BUY Denmark $31 124d
Men's Group C - Germany vs. Denmark BUY Denmark 28¢ $76 126d
Will Israel strike Iraq by February 28? SELL No 92¢ $24 137d
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? SELL No 78¢ $23 137d
Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026? SELL No 84¢ $24 137d
Will the US strike Syria next? SELL No 96¢ $25 137d
US strikes Iran by February 6, 2026? SELL No 92¢ $25 137d
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-02-01? BUY Yes 80¢ $81 137d
US strikes Iran by February 6, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $25 137d
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $42 138d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $49.41 · official $49.41 (match) · 307 history records