Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:19:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BD 0xbd11…5ff5 other 234 markets active 1h ago coverage 127d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$72 (-0%) realized −$72 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate3%6W / 228L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$195per market
Trades / day10.1pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days−$16
14 days−$23
30 days−$36
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 44% −$29
sports 24% −$20
politics 8% −$5
culture 7% −$6
economics 6% −$5
crypto 5% −$7
world 4% −$5
tech 2% −$6
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 76 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 185 -0.2% -9.7% 1% 0% -9.7%
all 234 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 47% · top 2 82% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.23 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.03 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

127d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$72
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)3%
Wins / losses6 / 228
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions0
Markets (closed)234 / 234
History coverage127d
Avg bet$195
Trades / day10.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 234 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $612 −$1 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Jun 17 $515 −$1 -0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $338 −$1 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 17 $266 $0 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 17 $493 −$1 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 16 $305 −$1 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 16 $305 $0 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Jun 16 $341 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $472 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $402 −$1 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $174 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $112 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $101 $0 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $545 −$1 -0%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 14 $98 $0 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 14 $207 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $117 $0 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 13 $191 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 13 $297 $0 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $126 $0 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $125 $0 -0%
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 12 $179 −$1 -0%
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 Jun 12 $101 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $256 $0 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 12 $532 −$1 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 11 $208 −$1 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 11 $160 $0 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $395 −$1 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 10 $501 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Jun 10 $350 −$1 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $300 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $602 −$1 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 09 $193 $0 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 09 $266 −$1 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 08 $134 $0 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 08 $122 $0 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 08 $246 $0 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 07 $247 −$1 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 05 $367 −$1 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 05 $256 −$1 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 04 $170 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 04 $134 $0 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 04 $183 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $338 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? Jun 03 $179 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 03 $111 $0 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 03 $320 −$1 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 02 $243 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 02 $270 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 02 $501 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 97¢ $47 1h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $47 2h
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $47 5h
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $47 7h
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $47 7h
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $47 9h
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $47 10h
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $47 11h
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $47 13h
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $47 15h
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $47 19h
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $48 21h
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $48 22h
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $48 23h
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL No 98¢ $48 32h
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY No 98¢ $48 34h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $48 35h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $48 37h
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 97¢ $48 38h
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $48 40h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $48 41h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $48 42h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $48 47h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $48 2d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $48 2d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $48 2d
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $48 2d
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $49 2d
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $48 2d
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $49 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1321 history records