Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T00:32:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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BD 0xbd11…8f5e crypto 100 markets active 0h ago coverage 20d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$2,992 (-8%) realized −$2,981 · open −$11
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate54%53W / 46L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$373per market
Trades / day15.6pace
Fees−$32est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$289now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$741
7 days−$741
14 days−$741
30 days−$4,600
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 71% −$1,567
other 24% −$1,610
sports 4% −$1,434
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-17.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -16.3% -24.2% 54% 38% -15.7%
≤30d 99 -8.6% -17.3% 54% 40% -20.8%
≤90d 99 -8.6% -17.3% 54% 40% -20.8%
all 99 -8.6% -17.3% 54% 40% -20.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.3% 40% -20.8%
10% -25.2% 27% -28.4%
15% -32.5% 23% -35.3%
20% -39.1% 17% -41.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
23% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -6% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$99 vs −$214 · ×0.46 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.53 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

20d coverage
Net worth$289
Realized−$2,981
Unrealized−$11
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses53 / 46
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$32
Open positions1
Markets (closed)99 / 100
History coverage20d
Avg bet$373
Trades / day15.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 99 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Down 61¢ 58¢ $300 $289 −$11 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 20 $208 +$36 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 20 $205 −$50 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 20 $103 +$20 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 20 $305 −$4 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 20 $259 +$171 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 20 $202 +$38 +19%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $7,206 +$70 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 19 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 19 $647 −$238 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 19 $442 +$50 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 19 $208 +$18 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 19 $716 −$716 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 19 $512 −$85 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET May 31 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET May 31 $205 −$205 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET May 31 $101 +$25 +24%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $1,626 −$1,434 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET May 31 $18 −$17 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET May 31 $62 −$57 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET May 31 $41 +$19 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET May 31 $21 +$3 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET May 31 $36 +$14 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET May 31 $21 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET May 31 $21 +$12 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET May 31 $26 −$21 -81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET May 31 $26 −$19 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET May 31 $504 +$66 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET May 31 $210 +$64 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET May 31 $103 −$103 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET May 31 $101 +$9 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET May 31 $34 +$5 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET May 31 $501 +$16 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET May 30 $26 +$8 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET May 30 $724 +$510 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET May 30 $408 −$408 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET May 30 $508 −$41 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET May 30 $103 +$100 +98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET May 30 $103 +$15 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET May 30 $410 +$197 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET May 30 $102 +$47 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET May 30 $205 +$93 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET May 30 $103 +$67 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET May 30 $101 +$13 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET May 30 $103 −$46 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET May 30 $305 +$82 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET May 30 $402 +$31 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET May 30 $57 −$30 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET May 30 $105 −$58 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET May 30 $515 −$499 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET May 30 $455 +$89 +20%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $102 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $103 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $103 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET SELL Up 78¢ $119 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $103 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET SELL Down 34¢ $125 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $105 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $51 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET SELL Down 58¢ $97 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $103 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET SELL Up 35¢ $27 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $51 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET SELL Down 74¢ $56 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $51 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET SELL Down 51¢ $67 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $52 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET SELL Down 77¢ $302 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $102 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $102 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $51 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $51 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $106 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $52 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET SELL Up 85¢ $323 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $207 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $202 27m
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $3,860 31m
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 88¢ $3,412 40m
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 75¢ $3,416 42m
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 85¢ $1 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $289.02 · official $298.90 · 378 history records