Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T17:26:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
BD 0xbd12…0b88 sports 21 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$50 (+12%) realized +$50 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +15% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate38%8W / 13L
Drawdown91%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day11.5pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$51
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)+3.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 +14.8% +3.9% 38% 33% +1.3%
≤30d 21 +14.8% +3.9% 38% 33% +1.3%
≤90d 21 +14.8% +3.9% 38% 33% +1.3%
all 21 +14.8% +3.9% 38% 33% +1.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +3.9% 33% +1.3%
10% -6.1% 33% -8.4%
15% -15.2% 33% -17.3%
20% -23.5% 33% -25.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 49% · top 2 63% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +15% · $-wt +12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +23% → late +7% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$30 vs −$14 · ×2.07 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.28 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$50
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses8 / 13
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions0
Markets (closed)21 / 21
History coverage3d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day11.5
Drawdown91%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 21 Trades
no open positions (11 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playof Jun 16 $10 +$7 +69%
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Spirit Academy (BO3) - European Pro League Grou Jun 16 $10 +$32 +317%
Dota 2: Lindorfitos vs x5 Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Dota 2: Lindorfitos vs x5 Gaming (BO3) - The International South Ameri Jun 15 $31 −$30 -98%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Spirit Academy (BO3) - European Pro League Gr Jun 15 $9 −$9 -98%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $31 −$30 -98%
Dota 2: summer bear vs Hive (BO3) - European Pro League Group A Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Game Master (BO3) - The International China Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Dota 2: D family vs Mentality Monster (BO3) - EPL World Series Southea Jun 15 $5 −$1 -20%
Counter-Strike: Millennium Esports vs Coalesce (BO3) - United21 Group Jun 15 $10 +$23 +223%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $30 +$28 +92%
Counter-Strike: Metizport vs Alliance (BO3) - ROG Journey Playoffs Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Counter-Strike: OLDBOYS- vs Arch (BO3) - ESEA Advanced Europe Playoffs Jun 14 $10 +$10 +93%
Dota 2: Dandelions vs Power Rangers (BO3) - European Pro League Group Jun 14 $116 −$13 -12%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs Leo Team (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Jun 14 $31 −$30 -98%
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs KOLESIE - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $15 −$15 -98%
Counter-Strike: Nexus vs Alliance (BO3) - ROG Journey Playoffs Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Dota 2: BALU vs summer bear (BO3) - European Pro League Group A Jun 13 $46 +$116 +252%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $15 +$1 +8%
Dota 2: Ilbirs eSports vs Power Rangers (BO3) - European Pro League Gr Jun 13 $5 +$20 +388%
Dota 2: Ilbirs eSports vs Power Rangers - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playof SELL K27 73¢ $17 1h
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Spirit Academy (BO3) - European Pro League Grou SELL Spirit Academy 100¢ $43 1h
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Spirit Academy (BO3) - European Pro League Grou BUY Spirit Academy 23¢ $10 1h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playof BUY K27 42¢ $10 1h
Dota 2: Lindorfitos vs x5 Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY x5 Gaming $2 25h
Dota 2: Lindorfitos vs x5 Gaming (BO3) - The International South Ameri BUY x5 Gaming 31¢ $31 25h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Spirit Academy (BO3) - European Pro League Gr BUY Spirit Academy 13¢ $9 27h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 15¢ $10 27h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 31¢ $20 27h
Dota 2: summer bear vs Hive (BO3) - European Pro League Group A BUY Hive 26¢ $10 28h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Game Master (BO3) - The International China BUY Game Master $5 30h
Dota 2: D family vs Mentality Monster (BO3) - EPL World Series Southea SELL D family 26¢ $4 31h
Counter-Strike: Millennium Esports vs Coalesce (BO3) - United21 Group SELL Coalesce 99¢ $33 31h
Counter-Strike: Millennium Esports vs Coalesce (BO3) - United21 Group BUY Coalesce 30¢ $10 32h
Dota 2: D family vs Mentality Monster (BO3) - EPL World Series Southea BUY D family 31¢ $5 32h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL Team Falcons 99¢ $58 44h
Counter-Strike: Metizport vs Alliance (BO3) - ROG Journey Playoffs BUY Metizport 46¢ $10 45h
Counter-Strike: OLDBOYS- vs Arch (BO3) - ESEA Advanced Europe Playoffs SELL Arch 38¢ $20 45h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Team Falcons 57¢ $20 45h
Counter-Strike: OLDBOYS- vs Arch (BO3) - ESEA Advanced Europe Playoffs BUY Arch 19¢ $10 45h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Team Falcons 42¢ $10 45h
Dota 2: Dandelions vs Power Rangers (BO3) - European Pro League Group BUY Power Rangers 51¢ $55 2d
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs Leo Team (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group BUY SPARTA 20¢ $31 2d
Dota 2: Dandelions vs Power Rangers (BO3) - European Pro League Group BUY Power Rangers 61¢ $61 2d
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs KOLESIE - Map 2 Winner BUY KOLESIE 39¢ $15 2d
Counter-Strike: Nexus vs Alliance (BO3) - ROG Journey Playoffs BUY Nexus 51¢ $20 2d
Dota 2: BALU vs summer bear (BO3) - European Pro League Group A SELL BALU 99¢ $162 2d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Spirit 78¢ $16 2d
Dota 2: BALU vs summer bear (BO3) - European Pro League Group A BUY BALU 32¢ $41 2d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Spirit 71¢ $15 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 35 history records