Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T19:29:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

BD
0xbd14…76b4
other · 649 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$17,289 -10%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$17,032 · open −$10
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$1,162
Realized−$17,032
Unrealized−$10
Win rate (resolved)8%
Wins / losses48 / 585
Whale WR (big bets)2%
Est. fees paid−$369
Open positions16
Markets (closed)633 / 649
History coverage16d
Avg bet$276
Trades / day214.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%
Chart Positions 16 History 633 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4,160
7 days−$10,631
14 days−$16,431
30 days−$17,032
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by June 30? No 84¢ 82¢ $311 $305 −$6 (-2%)
Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? Yes 77¢ 79¢ $142 $146 +$4 (+3%)
Will Trump speak to Masoud Pezeshkian in June? No 90¢ 89¢ $103 $102 −$1 (-1%)
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 15 and June 21, 2026? Yes 30¢ 30¢ $102 $100 −$2 (-2%)
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? No 52¢ 52¢ $99 $98 −$1 (-1%)
Will Citigroup (C) Q2 provision for credit losses be above $2.5B? Yes 86¢ 86¢ $96 $97 +$1 (+1%)
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Yes 19¢ 18¢ $83 $81 −$2 (-3%)
Applied Intuition IPO before 2027? No 83¢ 81¢ $66 $64 −$1 (-2%)
Will Michael Olise score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 85¢ 84¢ $51 $50 −$1 (-2%)
Will Yoane Wissa score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 55¢ 54¢ $39 $38 −$1 (-3%)
Ostium FDV above $100M one day after launch? No 57¢ 58¢ $29 $30 +$1 (+3%)
Will Anthropic’s market cap be 1.8T or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027? No 53¢ 52¢ $19 $19 −$0 (-1%)
Will Viking Therapeutics be acquired before 2027? No 71¢ 72¢ $14 $14 +$0 (+2%)
Will Russia capture all of Chasiv Yar by December 31? No 42¢ 40¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-4%)
Will Oro launch a token by December 31, 2027? No 41¢ 42¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+4%)
Will Luis Díaz score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 78¢ 78¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 Jun 12 $55 −$12 -22%
Anthropic vs OpenAI - higher valuation on December 31? Jun 12 $172 −$23 -13%
Will Dune 3 or Avengers: Doomsday gross more on their opening weekend? Jun 12 $0 $0 -1%
Hyperbeat FDV above $10M one day after launch? Jun 12 $238 −$16 -7%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? Jun 12 $1,693 +$161 +10%
Will Kylian Mbappé win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $89 −$4 -5%
Katy Perry and Justin Trudeau engaged by end of 2026? Jun 12 $10 −$1 -10%
Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the Selic rate after June 2026 meetin Jun 12 $561 −$64 -11%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? Jun 12 $44 $0 -1%
José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero sentenced to prison? Jun 12 $39 −$5 -14%
Will Oura's market cap be between $7.5B and $10B at market close on IP Jun 12 $120 −$13 -11%
Will Neymar Jr. score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $78 −$10 -13%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? Jun 12 $444 −$40 -9%
Will SpaceX’s “High” share price on its first day of trading hit 200 ( Jun 12 $55 −$1 -1%
Will Lionel Messi score 5+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $11 −$1 -12%
Will Propr launch a token by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $345 −$122 -35%
Will JP Morgan (JPM) Q2 investment banking fees be above $3.0B? Jun 12 $129 −$48 -37%
Will New York Yankees win the 2026 AL East title? Jun 12 $621 −$65 -10%
Will Trump attend 2 World Cup matches? Jun 12 $60 −$5 -8%
Will BULK launch a token by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $287 −$42 -14%
Will Spain be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? Jun 12 $40 −$3 -7%
Will Kevin Cash win the 2026 AL Manager of the Year? Jun 12 $40 −$3 -7%
Will Cap launch a token by September 30, 2026? Jun 12 $188 −$76 -40%
Will Exponent launch a token by December 31, 2027? Jun 12 $15 $0 -1%
Will Spark launch a token by December 31, 2027? Jun 12 $51 −$8 -16%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30? Jun 12 $261 −$15 -6%
Will Spain reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 12 $59 +$1 +2%
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $414 −$9 -2%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.35T by June 30? Jun 12 $28 −$5 -17%
Will Portugal reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $15 $0 +0%
Will City Protocol launch a token by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $191 −$24 -12%
US x Cuba military clash in 2026? Jun 12 $2 $0 +5%
United States vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $498 $0 +0%
Will USD be at least 2.0M Iranian rials on June 30? Jun 12 $24 −$5 -22%
Will Bert Mizusawa be the Republican nominee for Senate in Virginia? Jun 12 $0 $0 -11%
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31? Jun 12 $1,040 −$80 -8%
Ebola case in the US by June 30? Jun 12 $354 −$13 -4%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 30? Jun 12 $584 −$16 -3%
Will Frenkie de Jong score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $29 −$2 -8%
Will Anthropic have the #3 AI model at the end of July 2026? Jun 12 $132 −$17 -13%
Will Nansen launch a token by December 31, 2027? Jun 12 $479 −$46 -10%
Will Bernardo Silva score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $91 −$30 -34%
Will Cameron Boozer be the 3rd overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft? Jun 12 $1,601 −$313 -20%
Will Darryn Peterson be the 2nd overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft? Jun 12 $981 −$93 -9%
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $80 in June? Jun 12 $70 −$18 -25%
Will Germany score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $1 $0 +10%
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30? Jun 11 $2,014 −$81 -4%
Will Russia capture Kupiansk-Vuzlovyi by December 31? Jun 11 $214 −$11 -5%
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $500B by December 31? Jun 11 $153 −$3 -2%
Will Pau Cubarsí score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $168 −$5 -3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 26% −$5,978
politics 18% −$3,378
world 17% −$1,926
tech 15% −$2,233
finance 13% −$1,675
sports 8% −$1,345
economics 2% −$332
crypto 1% −$132
culture 0% −$42
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 SELL No 28¢ $43 4m
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 BUY No 35¢ $55 5m
Anthropic vs OpenAI - higher valuation on December 31? SELL Anthropic 59¢ $112 52m
Will Dune 3 or Avengers: Doomsday gross more on their opening weekend? SELL Dune 3 11¢ $0 54m
Hyperbeat FDV above $10M one day after launch? SELL No 33¢ $27 1h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? SELL Yes 40¢ $173 1h
Will Kylian Mbappé win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 9¢ $30 1h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? BUY Yes 43¢ $9 1h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? BUY Yes 43¢ $2 1h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? BUY Yes 43¢ $1 1h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? BUY Yes 43¢ $4 1h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? BUY Yes 43¢ $4 1h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? BUY Yes 43¢ $166 1h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? BUY Yes 43¢ $2 1h
Hyperbeat FDV above $10M one day after launch? BUY No 35¢ $25 1h
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 15 and June 21, 2026? BUY Yes 30¢ $102 1h
Will Russia capture all of Chasiv Yar by December 31? BUY No 42¢ $9 2h
Katy Perry and Justin Trudeau engaged by end of 2026? SELL Yes 29¢ $9 2h
Katy Perry and Justin Trudeau engaged by end of 2026? BUY Yes 31¢ $10 2h
Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the Selic rate after June 2026 meetin SELL No 24¢ $94 2h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? SELL No 74¢ $13 2h
Will Kylian Mbappé win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $34 2h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $254 3h
José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero sentenced to prison? SELL Yes 7¢ $15 3h
Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the Selic rate after June 2026 meetin BUY No 30¢ $119 3h
Hyperbeat FDV above $10M one day after launch? BUY No 36¢ $5 3h
Will Oura's market cap be between $7.5B and $10B at market close on IP SELL Yes 16¢ $30 3h
Will Oura's market cap be between $7.5B and $10B at market close on IP BUY Yes 15¢ $28 3h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? SELL No 80¢ $1 3h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? SELL No 80¢ $1 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-20.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 336 -12.6% -20.9% 8% 1% -19.1%
≤30d 633 -12.5% -20.9% 8% 1% -18.5%
≤90d 633 -12.5% -20.9% 8% 1% -18.5%
all 633 -12.5% -20.9% 8% 1% -18.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover214.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -20.9% 1% -18.5%
10% ← realistic here -28.4% 1% -26.3%
15% -35.3% 0% -33.5%
20% -41.7% 0% -40.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,161.81 · official $1,161.70 (match) · 3500 history records