Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T01:26:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BD 0xbd1d…9c02 crypto 227 markets active 0h ago coverage 12d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Total PnL −$3 (-1%) realized −$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate78%176W / 51L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day42.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days−$2
14 days−$3
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% +$3
sports 1% −$5
other 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-11.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 133 -4.1% -13.2% 74% 31% -9.8%
≤30d 227 -1.8% -11.2% 78% 32% -9.4%
≤90d 227 -1.8% -11.2% 78% 32% -9.4%
all 227 -1.8% -11.2% 78% 32% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover42.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.2% 32% -9.4%
10% ← realistic here -19.7% 18% -18.1%
15% -27.4% 12% -26.0%
20% -34.5% 7% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
56% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.28 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)78%
Wins / losses176 / 51
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)227 / 227
History coverage12d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day42.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 227 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Up 29¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Up 85¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Down 48¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Down 66¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Up 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Up 41¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Up 91¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Down 74¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Down 48¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Down 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Up 51¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Down 74¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Up 83¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Up 88¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Down 78¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Up 77¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Down 78¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Down 33¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Up 15¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Up 74¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Down 2¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Down 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Yes 21¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Up 17¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Down 2¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 14 $3 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 14 $7 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$1 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 14 $9 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 14 $3 $0 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$4 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$1 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 14 $8 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$2 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 14 $6 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 14 $3 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 14 $4 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 14 $4 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 14 $3 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 14 $8 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 14 $6 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 14 $11 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 14 $10 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$1 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$1 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 14 $7 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +50%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET SELL Up 84¢ $1 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $1 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET SELL Up 81¢ $1 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $1 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET SELL Up 71¢ $1 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $1 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $1 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET SELL Up 80¢ $2 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $1 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $1 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET SELL Down 76¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET SELL Up 18¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET SELL Up 59¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET SELL Up 41¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET SELL Down 66¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $1 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 680 history records