Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T05:27:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
BD 0xbd1f…61ab other 34 markets active 1h ago coverage 109d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$105 (-4%) realized −$106 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -26% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate45%15W / 18L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$79per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit53%portable
Net worth$16now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$478
7 days−$280
14 days−$280
30 days−$280
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 78% −$45
sports 9% −$234
world 8% −$87
crypto 5% −$10
finance 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-33.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -9.7% -18.3% 61% 44% -20.4%
≤30d 18 -9.7% -18.3% 61% 44% -20.4%
≤90d 31 -25.3% -32.4% 45% 32% -23.4%
all 33 -26.1% -33.1% 45% 33% -22.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -33.1% 33% -22.3%
10% -39.5% 30% -29.8%
15% -45.4% 24% -36.5%
20% -50.7% 18% -42.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -26% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -42% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$33 vs −$49 · ×0.68 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.57 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

109d coverage
Net worth$16
Realized−$106
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses15 / 18
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)33 / 34
History coverage109d
Avg bet$79
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit53%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 33 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-26? Yes 7¢ 8¢ $15 $16 +$1 (+7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 26 $10 +$5 +54%
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? Jun 26 $220 −$219 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $10 −$6 -61%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $368 +$38 +10%
Will Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 25 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $101 −$1 -1%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $202 −$200 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $186 +$136 +73%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $203 −$200 -99%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $100 +$19 +18%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $99 +$32 +32%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $101 +$38 +38%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $101 +$53 +52%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $158 +$86 +55%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $155 +$3 +2%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $107 +$49 +46%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $99 +$7 +7%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Apr 17 $59 −$59 -100%
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz in April? Apr 17 $50 −$50 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? Apr 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? Mar 31 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Mar 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Mar 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Mar 30 $108 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Mar 30 $5 −$5 -100%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Mar 30 $1 $0 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Mar 30 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Mar 30 $3 −$3 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Mar 30 $1 +$2 +159%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Mar 30 $1 +$1 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Mar 13 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Mar 09 $99 +$23 +23%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 7¢ $16 1h
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $16 1h
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? BUY Yes 86¢ $210 1h
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 64¢ $10 2h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 21¢ $4 2h
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $10 2h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 52¢ $10 2h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 62¢ $149 5h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 38¢ $149 5h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 48¢ $99 10h
Will Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $21 10h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 48¢ $21 10h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 48¢ $18 10h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 49¢ $102 11h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 83¢ $99 17h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 64¢ $101 17h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 83¢ $101 17h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 64¢ $101 17h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 57¢ $85 28h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 57¢ $101 28h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 57¢ $101 28h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 57¢ $101 28h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 75¢ $99 37h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 84¢ $100 37h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 72¢ $101 38h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 30¢ $102 38h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 65¢ $101 3d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 64¢ $158 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $158 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 98¢ $155 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $16.35 · official $16.35 (match) · 71 history records