Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T22:40:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

BD
0xbd1f…9136
sports · 313 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$8,603 -7%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$7,851 · open −$752
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$115
Realized−$7,851
Unrealized−$752
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses158 / 153
Whale WR (big bets)46%
Est. fees paid−$1,775
Open positions2
Markets (closed)311 / 313
History coverage27d
Avg bet$374
Trades / day18.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 2 History 311 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$88
7 days−$2,545
14 days−$3,663
30 days−$7,851
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Kudermetova vs. Kraus: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 Over 34¢ 36¢ $100 $104 +$4 (+4%)
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 6.5 Under 35¢ 0¢ $768 $11 −$757 (-99%)
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Minnesota Twins vs. Chicago White Sox No 53¢ 0¢ $196 $0 −$196 (-100%)
Mensik vs. Fonseca: Match O/U 40.5 Over 56¢ 0¢ $400 $0 −$400 (-100%)
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Washington Nationals vs. Arizona Diamondbacks No 54¢ 0¢ $700 $0 −$700 (-100%)
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals No 53¢ 0¢ $240 $0 −$240 (-100%)
UD Almería vs. CD Castellón: O/U 4.5 Under 65¢ 0¢ $211 $0 −$211 (-100%)
LoL: LOS vs Vivo Keyd Stars (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & LATAM Qualifier Playoffs LOS 62¢ 0¢ $422 $0 −$422 (-100%)
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins No 54¢ 0¢ $186 $0 −$186 (-100%)
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 7.5 Under 49¢ 0¢ $573 $0 −$573 (-100%)
Texas Rangers vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 11.5 Under 44¢ 0¢ $105 $0 −$105 (-100%)
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins No 54¢ 0¢ $978 $0 −$978 (-100%)
Philippines vs. Myanmar: O/U 2.5 Under 55¢ 0¢ $491 $0 −$491 (-100%)
Borges vs. Atmane: Match O/U 23.5 Over 50¢ 0¢ $491 $0 −$491 (-100%)
COD Meknès vs. Olympic Dcheira: Both Teams to Score No 54¢ 0¢ $127 $0 −$127 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Legacy - Map 4 Winner Team Falcons 38¢ 0¢ $200 $0 −$200 (-100%)
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers No 50¢ 0¢ $550 $0 −$550 (-100%)
Yunnan Yukun FC vs. Qingdao Xihaian FC: O/U 3.5 Under 59¢ 0¢ $387 $0 −$387 (-100%)
Hamburg European Open: Marcos Giron vs Ben Shelton Marcos Giron 38¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Valorant: Dynamo Esports vs Alliance Guardians (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Group Stage Dynamo Esports 52¢ 0¢ $134 $0 −$134 (-100%)
Bonzi vs. Minaur: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 Over 33¢ 0¢ $96 $0 −$96 (-100%)
Cambodia vs. Bhutan: O/U 3.5 Under 57¢ 0¢ $1,036 $0 −$1,036 (-100%)
Athletics vs. Houston Astros: O/U 13.5 Under 52¢ 0¢ $1,000 $0 −$1,000 (-100%)
Shelton vs. Giron: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 Under 53¢ 0¢ $146 $0 −$146 (-100%)
Libema Open, Qualification: Robin Montgomery vs Joanna Garland Joanna Garland 45¢ 0¢ $541 $0 −$541 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 5.5 Jun 13 $339 +$446 +132%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 7.5 Jun 13 $1,006 −$991 -98%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $406 +$389 +96%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 12.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $102 +$109 +108%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 13 $1,014 −$1,000 -99%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Yankees vs. Jun 13 $1,056 +$803 +76%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $507 −$500 -99%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: St. Louis Cardinals v Jun 13 $507 −$500 -99%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Dino Prizmic vs Rinky Hijikata Jun 13 $508 +$567 +112%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $457 −$450 -98%
Halle Open, Qualification: Martin Landaluce vs Marc-Andrea Huesler Jun 13 $386 +$685 +177%
Ilkley: Ashlyn Krueger vs Darja Vidmanova Jun 13 $509 −$500 -98%
Halle Open, Qualification: Jamie Mackenzie vs Alex Bolt Jun 13 $506 +$333 +66%
Shevchenko vs. Sachko: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 Jun 13 $437 +$121 +28%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Seattle Mariners vs. Jun 13 $369 +$344 +93%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 13 $351 +$370 +105%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 12 $430 −$80 -18%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Miami Marlins vs. Pit Jun 12 $234 +$197 +84%
Fullana vs. Alves: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 Jun 12 $158 +$75 +48%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $203 +$167 +82%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 12 $167 +$194 +116%
Taylor vs. Carnicella: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 Jun 12 $223 −$221 -99%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $223 −$220 -98%
HSBC Championships: Iva Jovic vs Amanda Anisimova Jun 12 $102 −$100 -98%
Schoolkate vs. Tarvet: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 Jun 12 $92 −$90 -98%
Galan vs. Coppejans: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 Jun 12 $323 +$94 +29%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $204 −$100 -49%
Cirstea vs. Raducanu: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 Jun 12 $328 +$97 +30%
Bonzi vs. Minaur: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 Jun 12 $98 −$96 -98%
Libema Open: Nuno Borges vs Marin Cilic Jun 12 $103 −$101 -98%
Kravchenko vs. Molleker: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 Jun 12 $158 +$46 +29%
Rybakina vs. Maria: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 Jun 12 $247 +$81 +33%
Blanch vs. Sanchis: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 Jun 12 $77 +$171 +223%
Tikhonova vs. Samir: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 Jun 12 $107 +$49 +46%
Bielinska vs. Mi: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 Jun 12 $55 +$23 +42%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $101 −$100 -99%
Morvayova vs. Kubka: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 Jun 12 $151 +$57 +38%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 8.5 Jun 11 $408 −$401 -98%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Seattle Mariners vs. Jun 11 $456 −$450 -99%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 8.5 Jun 11 $294 +$570 +194%
Kicker vs. Hardt: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 Jun 11 $341 −$46 -14%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 12.5 Jun 11 $304 +$28 +9%
Cigarran vs. Estevez: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 Jun 11 $194 +$117 +60%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Texas Rangers vs. Kan Jun 11 $467 −$266 -57%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $200 +$45 +23%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 8.5 Jun 11 $507 −$500 -99%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets: O/U 10.5 Jun 11 $393 +$314 +80%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 5.5 Jun 11 $97 +$96 +99%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Chicago Cubs vs. Colo Jun 11 $190 +$204 +107%
Bouzkova vs. Vekic: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 Jun 11 $499 −$178 -36%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 100% −$8,548
crypto 0% −$55
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 35¢ $783 54m
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 99¢ $784 54m
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 51¢ $498 1h
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 49¢ $508 1h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 99¢ $795 1h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 12.5 Total Corners SELL Over 99¢ $211 1h
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 42¢ $339 2h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 50¢ $406 2h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 12.5 Total Corners BUY Over 47¢ $102 2h
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Arizona Diamondbacks BUY No 53¢ $1,014 3h
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Yankees vs. SELL No 100¢ $1,859 3h
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Yankees vs. BUY No 56¢ $1,056 4h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners BUY Under 54¢ $507 4h
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: St. Louis Cardinals v BUY No 51¢ $507 4h
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Dino Prizmic vs Rinky Hijikata SELL Rinky Hijikata 99¢ $1,075 5h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $457 6h
Kudermetova vs. Kraus: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 BUY Over 43¢ $51 6h
Kudermetova vs. Kraus: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 BUY Over 28¢ $51 6h
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Dino Prizmic vs Rinky Hijikata BUY Rinky Hijikata 46¢ $508 6h
Halle Open, Qualification: Martin Landaluce vs Marc-Andrea Huesler SELL Martin Landaluce 99¢ $1,072 7h
Halle Open, Qualification: Martin Landaluce vs Marc-Andrea Huesler BUY Martin Landaluce 35¢ $386 7h
Ilkley: Ashlyn Krueger vs Darja Vidmanova BUY Darja Vidmanova 40¢ $509 8h
Halle Open, Qualification: Jamie Mackenzie vs Alex Bolt SELL Alex Bolt 99¢ $839 9h
Halle Open, Qualification: Jamie Mackenzie vs Alex Bolt BUY Alex Bolt 59¢ $506 10h
Shevchenko vs. Sachko: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 SELL Over 99¢ $558 10h
Shevchenko vs. Sachko: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 BUY Over 77¢ $437 13h
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Arizona Diamondbacks BUY No 48¢ $351 23h
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox SELL Atlanta Braves 41¢ $351 23h
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Atlanta Braves 49¢ $430 23h
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Miami Marlins vs. Pit SELL No 99¢ $431 23h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-13.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 129 +2.8% -7.0% 54% 53% -14.1%
≤30d 311 -4.7% -13.8% 51% 50% -15.7%
≤90d 311 -4.7% -13.8% 51% 50% -15.7%
all 311 -4.7% -13.8% 51% 50% -15.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover18.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.8% 50% -15.7%
10% -22.1% 50% -23.8%
15% -29.6% 46% -31.1%
20% -36.5% 40% -37.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $115.21 · official $1,158.64 · 526 history records