Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T17:19:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BD 0xbd21…1582 other 11 markets active 2d ago coverage 9d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$450 (-48%) realized −$111 · open −$339
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate40%4W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$85per market
Trades / day3.9pace
Kalshi-fit27%portable
Net worth$14now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days−$13
14 days−$55
30 days−$55
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 96% −$380
other 4% −$13
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-20.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -11.7% -20.1% 67% 50% -44.5%
≤30d 10 -12.1% -20.5% 40% 30% -43.4%
≤90d 10 -12.1% -20.5% 40% 30% -43.4%
all 10 -12.1% -20.5% 40% 30% -43.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.5% 30% -43.4%
10% -28.1% 10% -48.8%
15% -35.1% 10% -53.8%
20% -41.4% 10% -58.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 49% · top 2 79% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -37% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -37% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$9 · ×0.06 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.04 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$14
Realized−$111
Unrealized−$339
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses4 / 6
Open positions1
Markets (closed)10 / 11
History coverage9d
Avg bet$85
Trades / day3.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit27%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 10 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 16¢ $353 $14 −$339 (-96%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $2 $0 +15%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1 +$1 +101%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 +$1 +12%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $10 $0 +1%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 08 $102 −$42 -41%
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $2 $0 -4%
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $3 $0 -4%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele Jun 07 $6 $0 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 97¢ $2 38h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 84¢ $2 39h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 49¢ $1 45h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 3d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 93¢ $6 4d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $5 5d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $10 5d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 43¢ $10 5d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 41¢ $10 5d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL Yes $15 5d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes $47 8d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes $10 9d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes 11¢ $49 9d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes 28¢ $95 10d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes 23¢ $2 10d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes 21¢ $283 10d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 32¢ $18 10d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 33¢ $43 10d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 53¢ $102 10d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL Yes 42¢ $126 10d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL Yes 42¢ $30 10d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL Yes 42¢ $15 10d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL Yes 42¢ $1 10d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL Yes 42¢ $4 10d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL Yes 37¢ $150 10d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes 37¢ $5 10d
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 65¢ $2 10d
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 54¢ $3 10d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes 37¢ $1 10d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes 37¢ $192 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $14.35 · official $14.35 (match) · 39 history records