Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T11:17:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
BD 0xbd22…d3b0 sports 345 markets active 0h ago coverage 612d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$7 (-0%) realized −$7 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate66%227W / 118L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Fees−$59est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$41
7 days+$92
14 days−$148
30 days−$429
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 85% +$164
crypto 5% −$107
other 4% +$64
weather 3% +$3
world 2% −$106
politics 1% −$55
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-7.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 +9.1% -1.3% 81% 81% +7.7%
≤30d 178 -20.7% -28.3% 50% 40% -19.6%
≤90d 344 +1.8% -7.9% 66% 51% -10.0%
all 345 +1.8% -7.9% 66% 51% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.9% 51% -10.0%
10% -16.7% 37% -18.6%
15% -24.8% 28% -26.5%
20% -32.2% 21% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +27% → late -23% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$12 · ×0.5 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

612d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses227 / 118
Est. fees paid−$59
Open positions0
Markets (closed)345 / 345
History coverage612d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 345 Trades
no open positions (16 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Overwatch: ZETA DIVISION vs Falcons (BO3) - OCS Korea Stage 2 Group St Jun 26 $69 +$28 +41%
Overwatch: Cheeseburger vs O2 Blast (BO3) - OCS Korea Stage 2 Group St Jun 26 $91 +$25 +27%
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 26 $17 −$17 -100%
Overwatch: Lazuli vs Uwinks (BO3) - OCS Japan Stage 2 Group Stage Jun 24 $5 +$5 +119%
Overwatch: MURASH GAMING vs ENTER FORCE.36 (BO3) - OCS Japan Stage 2 G Jun 24 $52 +$7 +14%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 24 $7 +$3 +47%
Overwatch: 99DIVINE vs REVATI (BO3) - OCS Japan Stage 2 Group Stage Jun 23 $8 +$2 +24%
Overwatch: MURASH GAMING vs Uwinks (BO3) - OCS Japan Stage 2 Group Sta Jun 23 $54 +$11 +20%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $7 +$3 +36%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 22 $9 +$1 +18%
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals Jun 22 $55 +$20 +35%
Overwatch: Lazuli vs ENTER FORCE.36 - Game 1 Winner Jun 22 $45 +$10 +23%
Overwatch: 99DIVINE vs Uwinks (BO3) - OCS Japan Stage 2 Group Stage Jun 22 $36 +$10 +28%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla Jun 21 $9 −$9 -100%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $8 −$8 -97%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 21 $13 +$1 +11%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -99%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs Jun 18 $48 −$48 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 15 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 15 $103 −$100 -97%
Overwatch: REVATI vs ENTER FORCE.36 (BO3) - OCS Japan Stage 2 Group St Jun 15 $158 +$4 +2%
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $50 +$7 +13%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $206 −$35 -17%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $52 −$51 -99%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $22 −$15 -70%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $25 +$5 +20%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $14 $0 +2%
Spread: Germany (-4.5) Jun 14 $17 $0 +2%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $17 +$23 +138%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $14 −$14 -99%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $4 +$6 +152%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $4 −$2 -48%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $5 +$5 +105%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $46 +$11 +25%
Switzerland to score first vs. Qatar? Jun 13 $24 +$3 +14%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $4 −$3 -87%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $8 +$2 +31%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $8 +$7 +82%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 13 $11 −$3 -25%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $18 −$6 -35%
Overwatch: Weibo Gaming vs JD Gaming (BO3) - OCS China Stage 2 Seeding Jun 13 $4 +$4 +83%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $1 −$1 -91%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $6 +$3 +54%
Overwatch: Poker Face vs Falcons (BO3) - OCS Korea Stage 2 Group Stage Jun 13 $68 +$4 +6%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $24 +$6 +27%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $5 +$2 +48%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $25 −$4 -15%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Overwatch: ZETA DIVISION vs Falcons (BO3) - OCS Korea Stage 2 Group St SELL ZETA DIVISION 100¢ $97 7m
Overwatch: ZETA DIVISION vs Falcons (BO3) - OCS Korea Stage 2 Group St BUY ZETA DIVISION 70¢ $69 1h
Overwatch: Cheeseburger vs O2 Blast (BO3) - OCS Korea Stage 2 Group St SELL O2 Blast 100¢ $116 1h
Overwatch: Cheeseburger vs O2 Blast (BO3) - OCS Korea Stage 2 Group St BUY O2 Blast 78¢ $53 6h
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 87¢ $17 9h
Overwatch: Cheeseburger vs O2 Blast (BO3) - OCS Korea Stage 2 Group St BUY O2 Blast 77¢ $11 28h
Overwatch: Cheeseburger vs O2 Blast (BO3) - OCS Korea Stage 2 Group St BUY O2 Blast 79¢ $27 44h
Overwatch: Lazuli vs Uwinks (BO3) - OCS Japan Stage 2 Group Stage BUY Lazuli 45¢ $5 46h
Overwatch: MURASH GAMING vs ENTER FORCE.36 (BO3) - OCS Japan Stage 2 G SELL ENTER FORCE.36 80¢ $32 2d
Overwatch: MURASH GAMING vs ENTER FORCE.36 (BO3) - OCS Japan Stage 2 G SELL ENTER FORCE.36 88¢ $11 2d
Overwatch: MURASH GAMING vs ENTER FORCE.36 (BO3) - OCS Japan Stage 2 G SELL ENTER FORCE.36 88¢ $16 2d
Overwatch: MURASH GAMING vs ENTER FORCE.36 (BO3) - OCS Japan Stage 2 G BUY ENTER FORCE.36 72¢ $37 2d
Overwatch: MURASH GAMING vs ENTER FORCE.36 (BO3) - OCS Japan Stage 2 G BUY ENTER FORCE.36 72¢ $15 2d
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 9.5 Total Corners SELL Under 99¢ $10 2d
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 67¢ $3 2d
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 67¢ $3 2d
Overwatch: 99DIVINE vs REVATI (BO3) - OCS Japan Stage 2 Group Stage BUY 99DIVINE 80¢ $8 2d
Overwatch: MURASH GAMING vs Uwinks (BO3) - OCS Japan Stage 2 Group Sta SELL MURASH GAMING 93¢ $65 3d
Overwatch: MURASH GAMING vs Uwinks (BO3) - OCS Japan Stage 2 Group Sta BUY MURASH GAMING 77¢ $47 3d
Overwatch: MURASH GAMING vs Uwinks (BO3) - OCS Japan Stage 2 Group Sta BUY MURASH GAMING 77¢ $8 3d
France vs. Iraq: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Under 73¢ $7 3d
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 85¢ $8 3d
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 85¢ $1 3d
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals SELL Yes 100¢ $75 3d
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals BUY Yes 53¢ $19 3d
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals BUY Yes 92¢ $4 3d
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals BUY Yes 92¢ $33 3d
Overwatch: Lazuli vs ENTER FORCE.36 - Game 1 Winner BUY ENTER FORCE.36 81¢ $45 3d
Overwatch: 99DIVINE vs Uwinks (BO3) - OCS Japan Stage 2 Group Stage SELL Uwinks 100¢ $46 3d
Overwatch: 99DIVINE vs Uwinks (BO3) - OCS Japan Stage 2 Group Stage BUY Uwinks 78¢ $36 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 951 history records