Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T03:48:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
BD 0xbd25…650c other 8 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$56 (-10%) realized −$49 · open −$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -29% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip
Net edge-38%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate40%2W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$72per market
Trades / day5.3pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$263now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 64% +$35
sports 28% −$72
world 9% +$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-35.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -28.8% -35.6% 40% 40% -15.9%
≤30d 5 -28.8% -35.6% 40% 40% -15.9%
≤90d 5 -28.8% -35.6% 40% 40% -15.9%
all 5 -28.8% -35.6% 40% 40% -15.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -35.6% 40% -15.9%
10% -41.7% 20% -23.9%
15% -47.4% 20% -31.3%
20% -52.5% 20% -38.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 92% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -29% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$52 vs −$42 · ×1.25 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$263
Realized−$49
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses2 / 3
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions3
Markets (closed)5 / 8
History coverage2d
Avg bet$72
Trades / day5.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 19¢ $90 $90 +$0 (+0%)
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? Yes 36¢ 36¢ $90 $89 −$1 (-1%)
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? Yes 21¢ 20¢ $90 $84 −$6 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $92 −$60 -65%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $92 +$96 +104%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 26 $50 +$8 +17%
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? Jun 24 $33 −$32 -98%
Will Scotland vs. Brazil end in a draw? Jun 24 $34 −$33 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 7¢ $32 3m
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 19¢ $92 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $92 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 53¢ $188 1h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 36¢ $92 1h
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $92 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 25¢ $92 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 28¢ $58 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 24¢ $50 43h
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $20 2d
Will Scotland vs. Brazil end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $20 2d
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $13 2d
Will Scotland vs. Brazil end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $14 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $262.56 · official $262.56 (match) · 13 history records