Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T12:23:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BD 0xbd2b…74ac crypto 408 markets active 0h ago coverage 119d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$249 (-6%) realized −$247 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate64%257W / 146L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day8.0pace
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$18now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$16
7 days−$11
14 days−$11
30 days−$11
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 86% −$227
weather 11% −$10
sports 2% −$77
other 1% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-11.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 51 -5.9% -14.8% 37% 37% -11.5%
≤30d 51 -5.9% -14.8% 37% 37% -11.5%
≤90d 63 -12.4% -20.8% 37% 37% -14.1%
all 403 -2.4% -11.7% 64% 48% -16.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.7% 48% -16.0%
10% -20.1% 29% -24.0%
15% -27.9% 21% -31.4%
20% -34.9% 15% -38.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
23% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$12 · ×0.47 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

119d coverage
Net worth$18
Realized−$247
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses257 / 146
Open positions5
Markets (closed)403 / 408
History coverage119d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day8.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 403 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 20¢ $7 $8 +$1 (+10%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 33°C on June 21? Yes 52¢ 44¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-16%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 34°C on June 21? Yes 62¢ 45¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-28%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-18%)
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 73¢ 70¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 30°C or below on June 21? Jun 21 $111 −$5 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 31°C on June 21? Jun 21 $10 −$3 -28%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 30°C on June 20? Jun 20 $14 +$14 +98%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 33°C on June 20? Jun 20 $5 +$2 +46%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 31°C on June 20? Jun 20 $10 −$1 -11%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 32°C on June 20? Jun 20 $5 −$2 -31%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 25°C on June 20? Jun 20 $4 +$4 +104%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 27°C on June 19? Jun 19 $8 +$7 +80%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on June 19? Jun 19 $20 +$16 +80%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 19? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 19? Jun 19 $7 −$7 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 19? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 19? Jun 19 $5 −$3 -67%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 19? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 28°C on June 19? Jun 18 $5 −$1 -14%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 30°C on June 18? Jun 18 $10 +$6 +58%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 24°C on June 18? Jun 18 $21 +$9 +41%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 31°C on June 18? Jun 18 $10 −$1 -11%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 23°C or below on June 18? Jun 18 $5 +$1 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on June 18? Jun 18 $5 +$5 +99%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 18? Jun 18 $3 +$1 +28%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 18? Jun 18 $3 +$4 +145%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on June 18? Jun 18 $5 +$6 +124%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 17? Jun 17 $10 +$5 +53%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on June 18? Jun 17 $10 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 17? Jun 17 $7 −$5 -68%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 17? Jun 17 $10 −$7 -68%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C on June 17? Jun 17 $10 +$6 +55%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C on June 17? Jun 17 $9 +$5 +52%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 30°C on June 17? Jun 17 $4 +$4 +83%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 28°C on June 18? Jun 17 $5 −$3 -59%
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 17? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 18? Jun 17 $4 −$1 -32%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 18? Jun 16 $5 −$4 -74%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 17? Jun 16 $4 −$2 -55%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 17? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 17? Jun 16 $2 −$1 -30%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on June 16? Jun 16 $14 −$5 -34%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on June 16? Jun 16 $22 −$15 -71%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on June 16? Jun 16 $26 −$7 -28%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 25°C on June 18? Jun 16 $10 −$1 -9%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 16? Jun 16 $4 −$4 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 18? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -86%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$3 -57%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 15 $5 $0 -4%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 15 $5 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on June 15? Jun 15 $7 +$2 +34%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 17°C on June 15? Jun 15 $6 +$3 +55%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 15? Jun 14 $2 $0 +19%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 33°C on June 21? BUY Yes 52¢ $5 8m
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 34°C on June 21? SELL Yes 41¢ $3 8m
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 34°C on June 21? BUY Yes 66¢ $5 10m
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 30°C or below on June 21? SELL Yes 82¢ $99 49m
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 30°C or below on June 21? BUY Yes 82¢ $101 1h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 31°C on June 21? SELL Yes 45¢ $4 2h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 30°C or below on June 21? SELL Yes 44¢ $4 2h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 31°C on June 21? SELL Yes 46¢ $4 2h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 30°C or below on June 21? SELL Yes 30¢ $3 2h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 30°C or below on June 21? BUY Yes 51¢ $10 2h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 34°C on June 21? BUY Yes 59¢ $5 2h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 31°C on June 21? BUY Yes 60¢ $10 2h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 30°C on June 20? SELL Yes 97¢ $21 19h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 33°C on June 20? SELL Yes 77¢ $7 22h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 30°C on June 20? BUY Yes 46¢ $10 22h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 31°C on June 20? SELL Yes 46¢ $9 22h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 33°C on June 20? BUY Yes 51¢ $5 22h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 32°C on June 20? SELL Yes 43¢ $4 22h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 25°C on June 20? SELL Yes 47¢ $8 22h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 25°C on June 20? BUY Yes 30¢ $2 23h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 31°C on June 20? BUY Yes 53¢ $5 25h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 25°C on June 20? BUY Yes 17¢ $2 27h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 32°C on June 20? BUY Yes 59¢ $5 27h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 31°C on June 20? BUY Yes 46¢ $5 27h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 30°C on June 20? SELL Yes 22¢ $8 27h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 27°C on June 19? SELL Yes 94¢ $15 43h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 27°C on June 19? BUY Yes 73¢ $3 46h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on June 19? SELL Yes 100¢ $37 2d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 19? BUY Yes 70¢ $5 2d
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on June 19? BUY Yes 54¢ $20 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $18.13 · official $18.13 (match) · 1224 history records