Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T14:39:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
BD 0xbd30…ff53 other 79 markets active 2h ago coverage 72d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,511 (+31%) realized +$1,284 · open +$227
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate41%22W / 32L
Drawdown58%max
Avg bet$61per market
Trades / day3.2pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit39%portable
Net worth$1,868now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$46
7 days−$77
14 days−$47
30 days+$112
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 76% +$361
sports 14% −$117
world 9% +$29
finance 1% +$84
weather 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-12.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +8.4% -1.9% 20% 20% -45.1%
≤30d 10 +16.1% +5.0% 50% 40% +2.9%
≤90d 54 -3.4% -12.6% 41% 39% -4.4%
all 54 -3.4% -12.6% 41% 39% -4.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.6% 39% -4.4%
10% -20.9% 39% -13.5%
15% -28.6% 39% -21.9%
20% -35.6% 33% -29.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +6% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -25% → late +18% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$44 vs −$26 · ×1.67 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.15 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

72d coverage
Net worth$1,868
Realized+$1,284
Unrealized+$227
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses22 / 32
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions18
Markets (closed)54 / 79
History coverage72d
Avg bet$61
Trades / day3.2
Drawdown58%
Kalshi-fit39%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 18 History 54 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Yes 37¢ 86¢ $232 $531 +$299 (+129%)
Will Neymar Jr. score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 38¢ 32¢ $402 $344 −$58 (-14%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 13¢ $296 $344 +$47 (+16%)
Will England reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 58¢ 60¢ $266 $273 +$7 (+3%)
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 22¢ $66 $98 +$31 (+47%)
Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Yes 29¢ 32¢ $66 $71 +$5 (+8%)
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $55 $54 −$2 (-3%)
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 58¢ 32¢ $73 $39 −$33 (-46%)
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $29 $22 −$6 (-22%)
Will South America (CONMEBOL) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 21¢ 20¢ $22 $21 −$1 (-2%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $22 $17 −$5 (-21%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 7¢ $20 $15 −$5 (-26%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 12¢ $9 $12 +$3 (+35%)
Will Curacao advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 3¢ $26 $8 −$18 (-68%)
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $17 $7 −$10 (-57%)
Will Ousmane Dembele be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 1¢ $35 $7 −$28 (-80%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $2 $2 −$1 (-23%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$1 (-41%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 32 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $47 −$46 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $88 −$87 -99%
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Jun 15 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $22 +$97 +442%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 11 $321 +$30 +9%
Will Italy win on 2026-06-03? Jun 03 $71 +$34 +48%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-03? Jun 03 $11 −$11 -98%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Jun 02 $39 +$42 +108%
Will Crystal Palace win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa Conference League? May 28 $175 +$94 +54%
Will West Ham United FC win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $26 −$25 -98%
Will Brentford FC vs. Crystal Palace FC end in a draw? May 17 $11 +$31 +291%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on May 18? May 17 $4 −$4 -97%
Will West Ham be relegated from the English Premier League after the 2 May 17 $56 −$55 -98%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 17 $110 $0 -0%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-10? May 11 $107 +$59 +56%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-10? May 11 $31 +$20 +65%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $40 −$40 -98%
Will FC Barcelona vs. Real Madrid CF end in a draw? May 10 $19 −$19 -98%
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) May 10 $27 +$104 +384%
UFC 328: Tatsuro Taira vs. Joshua Van (Flyweight, Main Card) May 10 $25 +$39 +152%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-05-07? May 07 $50 +$32 +65%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Punjab Kings May 06 $56 −$55 -99%
Will Arsenal reach the UEFA Champions League final? May 05 $146 +$55 +38%
Will Arsenal FC vs. Club Atlético de Madrid end in a draw? May 05 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-04? May 04 $46 −$46 -99%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $69 +$50 +73%
Will Como 1907 win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-03? May 02 $25 −$25 -98%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-05-03? May 02 $19 −$19 -98%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in April? Apr 30 $23 +$64 +280%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in April? Apr 29 $20 +$19 +95%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-29? Apr 29 $56 −$55 -98%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-28? Apr 28 $41 +$62 +152%
Madrid Open: Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Casper Ruud Apr 28 $25 −$25 -99%
Will Manchester United FC vs. Brentford FC end in a draw? Apr 27 $11 −$10 -98%
Will Wolverhampton Wanderers FC vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC end in a draw Apr 25 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-24? Apr 24 $53 −$52 -99%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-22? Apr 22 $22 −$22 -98%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-19? Apr 19 $36 +$15 +42%
Will Everton FC vs. Liverpool FC end in a draw? Apr 19 $20 −$20 -98%
Indian Premier League: Mumbai Indians vs Punjab Kings Apr 17 $26 +$30 +114%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-15? Apr 15 $40 −$40 -99%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Will FC Bayern München vs. Real Madrid CF end in a draw? Apr 15 $9 −$9 -98%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-14? Apr 15 $25 +$41 +165%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-14? Apr 14 $25 −$24 -98%
Barcelona Open: Tomas Etcheverry vs Jack Draper Apr 13 $20 −$20 -98%
Indian Premier League: Mumbai Indians vs Royal Challengers Bangalore Apr 12 $10 +$12 +124%
Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Gujarat Titans Apr 12 $15 −$15 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY 4¢ $26 1h
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? AND Will Brazil win on BUY 2¢ $6 1h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 18¢ $57 1h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? A BUY 5¢ $10 2h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 12h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 22¢ $46 13h
Will Neymar Jr. score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 33¢ $11 32h
Will Curacao advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY Yes 3¢ $2 32h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $11 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? A BUY 33¢ $34 2d
Will Neymar Jr. score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 31¢ $15 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 51¢ $15 4d
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main BUY Aiemann Zahabi 23¢ $20 4d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 53¢ $15 4d
Will Neymar Jr. score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 35¢ $20 4d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 51¢ $58 5d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 18¢ $22 5d
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $20 5d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY 31¢ $20 5d
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 39¢ $8 6d
Will Neymar Jr. score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 36¢ $11 6d
Will Neymar Jr. score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 34¢ $18 6d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 6d
Will Neymar Jr. score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 34¢ $0 6d
Will Neymar Jr. score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 34¢ $1 6d
Will Neymar Jr. score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 34¢ $1 6d
Will Neymar Jr. score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 34¢ $2 6d
Will Neymar Jr. score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 34¢ $2 6d
Will Neymar Jr. score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 34¢ $2 6d
Will Neymar Jr. score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 34¢ $2 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,867.60 · official $1,907.97 · 311 history records