Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T20:14:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BD 0xbd30…c3a0 sports 137 markets active 1h ago coverage 102d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,282 (-11%) realized −$1,333 · open +$51
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate44%59W / 74L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$83per market
Trades / day2.0pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$482now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$132
7 days−$375
14 days−$375
30 days−$375
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 85% −$1,194
other 10% −$45
world 2% −$53
politics 2% +$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-26.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 3 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤90d 17 -49.6% -54.4% 24% 24% -50.0%
all 133 -18.2% -26.0% 44% 44% -20.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.0% 44% -20.6%
10% -33.1% 44% -28.2%
15% -39.6% 38% -35.1%
20% -45.5% 32% -41.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -45% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -17% → late -19% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$61 vs −$67 · ×0.92 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

102d coverage
Net worth$482
Realized−$1,333
Unrealized+$51
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses59 / 74
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions4
Markets (closed)133 / 137
History coverage102d
Avg bet$83
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 133 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Norway vs. France: France O/U 4.5 Corners Over 58¢ 82¢ $109 $156 +$47 (+43%)
Uruguay vs. Spain: Uruguay O/U 3.5 Corners Under 54¢ 55¢ $116 $117 +$1 (+1%)
O/U 1.5 Rounds Over 52¢ 52¢ $111 $110 −$1 (-1%)
Panama vs. England: England O/U 7.5 Corners Under 56¢ 58¢ $95 $99 +$5 (+5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Türkiye vs. United States: United States O/U 5.5 Corners Jun 25 $133 −$132 -99%
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 24 $133 −$132 -99%
Morocco vs. Haiti: Morocco O/U 6.5 Corners Jun 24 $113 −$112 -99%
Will Connor McDavid win the 2025–2026 NHL Art Ross Trophy? Apr 12 $20 +$12 +60%
Will Trump visit China by May 31? Apr 12 $174 −$36 -21%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th? Apr 12 $79 −$1 -1%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? Apr 12 $87 −$87 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Apr 06 $90 +$63 +70%
Joel Embiid: Assists O/U 4.5 Apr 06 $3 −$3 -100%
Joel Embiid: Rebounds O/U 8.5 Apr 06 $11 −$11 -100%
U.S. forces seize another oil tanker by March 31? Apr 06 $20 −$20 -100%
Joel Embiid: Points O/U 26.5 Apr 06 $35 −$35 -100%
Purdue Boilermakers vs. Arizona Wildcats Mar 29 $114 +$46 +40%
UFC Fight Night: Casey O'Neill vs. Gabriella Fernandes (Women's Flywei Mar 29 $95 +$103 +108%
UFC Fight Night: Israel Adesanya vs. Joe Pyfer (Middleweight, Main Car Mar 29 $96 −$96 -100%
Spread: Arizona Wildcats (-6.5) Mar 29 $50 −$50 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Chase Hooper vs. Lance Gibson Jr. (Lightweight, Main Mar 29 $126 −$126 -100%
Texas Rangers vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 7.5 Mar 27 $20 +$17 +89%
Nebraska Cornhuskers vs. Iowa Hawkeyes Mar 27 $51 +$59 +116%
Illinois Fighting Illini vs. Houston Cougars Mar 27 $56 −$56 -100%
Miami Open: Elena Rybakina vs Jessica Pegula Mar 27 $108 +$53 +49%
Spread: Nuggets (-5.5) Mar 25 $82 −$82 -100%
Valorant: Evil Geniuses Academy vs Azure Dragon Gaming (BO3) - VCL Nor Mar 25 $82 −$82 -100%
Wild vs. Lightning Mar 25 $50 +$35 +69%
Senators vs. Red Wings Mar 25 $80 +$94 +117%
Blue Jackets vs. Flyers Mar 25 $105 +$83 +78%
Miami Open: Belinda Bencic vs Coco Gauff Mar 24 $78 −$6 -8%
Spread: Raptors (-12.5) Mar 24 $62 +$90 +144%
Raptors vs. Jazz Mar 24 $118 +$28 +24%
Warriors vs. Mavericks Mar 24 $79 −$79 -100%
Lakers vs. Pistons Mar 24 $49 −$49 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Spirit (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterdam Grou Mar 24 $105 −$105 -100%
Lightning vs. Flames Mar 23 $102 −$102 -100%
UCLA Bruins vs. Connecticut Huskies Mar 23 $126 +$73 +58%
Wizards vs. Knicks: O/U 227.5 Mar 23 $77 +$66 +85%
UNLV Runnin' Rebels vs. Tulsa Golden Hurricane Mar 23 $125 +$70 +56%
UCLA Bruins vs. Connecticut Huskies: O/U 135.5 Mar 23 $111 +$124 +112%
Spread: Iowa State Cyclones (-4.5) Mar 23 $152 −$152 -100%
St. John's Red Storm vs. Kansas Jayhawks Mar 22 $101 +$63 +63%
Spread: Raptors (-4.5) Mar 22 $50 −$2 -4%
Predators vs. Blackhawks Mar 22 $100 +$100 +100%
Miami Open: Iva Jovic vs Talia Gibson Mar 22 $140 −$140 -100%
Kentucky Wildcats vs. Iowa State Cyclones Mar 22 $227 +$110 +48%
Will SPD win the most seats in the 2026 Rhineland-Palatinate parliamen Mar 22 $77 +$51 +66%
Will AFC Ajax win on 2026-03-22? Mar 22 $106 +$43 +41%
Bruins vs. Red Wings Mar 22 $106 −$106 -100%
Pacers vs. Spurs: O/U 234.5 Mar 22 $79 −$79 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Aether vs Zomblers (BO3) - ESL Challenger League Mar 22 $116 −$116 -100%
Vanderbilt Commodores vs. Nebraska Cornhuskers Mar 22 $125 −$125 -100%
76ers vs. Jazz Mar 22 $94 +$46 +49%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
O/U 1.5 Rounds BUY Over 52¢ $113 1h
Uruguay vs. Spain: Uruguay O/U 3.5 Corners BUY Under 54¢ $118 1h
Panama vs. England: England O/U 7.5 Corners BUY Under 56¢ $96 10h
Norway vs. France: France O/U 4.5 Corners BUY Over 58¢ $111 11h
Türkiye vs. United States: United States O/U 5.5 Corners BUY Under 56¢ $133 37h
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox BUY New York Yankees 56¢ $133 2d
Morocco vs. Haiti: Morocco O/U 6.5 Corners BUY Under 52¢ $113 2d
Will Connor McDavid win the 2025–2026 NHL Art Ross Trophy? SELL Yes 91¢ $32 75d
Will Trump visit China by May 31? SELL Yes 69¢ $138 75d
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th? SELL Yes 73¢ $78 75d
LoL: T1 vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 BUY T1 58¢ $90 85d
Joel Embiid: Assists O/U 4.5 BUY Yes 11¢ $3 86d
Joel Embiid: Rebounds O/U 8.5 BUY Yes 19¢ $11 86d
Joel Embiid: Points O/U 26.5 BUY Yes 21¢ $4 86d
Joel Embiid: Points O/U 26.5 BUY Yes $13 86d
Joel Embiid: Points O/U 26.5 BUY Yes $18 86d
Will Connor McDavid win the 2025–2026 NHL Art Ross Trophy? BUY Yes 57¢ $9 89d
Will Connor McDavid win the 2025–2026 NHL Art Ross Trophy? BUY Yes 57¢ $11 89d
UFC Fight Night: Israel Adesanya vs. Joe Pyfer (Middleweight, Main Car BUY Israel Adesanya 56¢ $96 90d
Purdue Boilermakers vs. Arizona Wildcats BUY Arizona Wildcats 71¢ $114 90d
Spread: Arizona Wildcats (-6.5) BUY Purdue Boilermakers 53¢ $50 90d
UFC Fight Night: Chase Hooper vs. Lance Gibson Jr. (Lightweight, Main BUY Chase Hooper 73¢ $126 91d
Texas Rangers vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 53¢ $20 93d
Will Trump visit China by May 31? BUY Yes 87¢ $174 93d
Wild vs. Lightning SELL Lightning 100¢ $85 93d
Senators vs. Red Wings SELL Senators 100¢ $174 93d
Blue Jackets vs. Flyers SELL Blue Jackets 100¢ $188 93d
Wild vs. Lightning BUY Lightning 59¢ $50 93d
Miami Open: Belinda Bencic vs Coco Gauff SELL Coco Gauff 46¢ $72 93d
UFC Fight Night: Casey O'Neill vs. Gabriella Fernandes (Women's Flywei BUY Casey ONeill 48¢ $95 93d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $482.38 · official $482.38 (match) · 302 history records