Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T19:18:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
BD 0xbd37…0ae4 crypto 300 markets active 0h ago coverage 108d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$117 (+2%) realized +$117 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate61%182W / 118L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day6.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$195
7 days+$188
14 days+$188
30 days+$167
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$177
other 0% −$1
politics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-16.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 +35.5% +22.6% 87% 67% +15.6%
≤30d 28 +9.0% -1.4% 68% 54% +9.3%
≤90d 115 -19.0% -26.7% 50% 37% -3.1%
all 300 -7.9% -16.7% 61% 38% -6.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.7% 38% -6.4%
10% -24.6% 25% -15.3%
15% -31.9% 20% -23.5%
20% -38.6% 13% -31.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
36% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -16% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$5 · ×0.83 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.27 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

108d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$117
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses182 / 118
Open positions0
Markets (closed)300 / 300
History coverage108d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day6.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 300 Trades
no open positions (26 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 24 $37 +$23 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 24 $28 +$10 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 24 $27 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 24 $20 +$6 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 24 $57 +$39 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 24 $103 +$37 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 24 $124 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 24 $20 +$8 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 24 $126 +$7 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 24 $41 +$5 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 24 $17 +$45 +272%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 24 $42 +$11 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 24 $21 +$2 +10%
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 18 $10 −$9 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 18 $7 +$2 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET May 31 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET May 31 $3 −$1 -32%
Solana Up or Down - May 31, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET May 31 $10 $0 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET May 31 $9 −$9 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET May 27 $22 −$21 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET May 27 $16 +$3 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET May 27 $21 −$20 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET May 27 $12 +$28 +231%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET May 26 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET May 26 $4 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET May 26 $10 +$3 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET May 26 $9 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET May 26 $8 +$1 +11%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 21, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET May 21 $28 −$20 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET May 21 $12 +$3 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET May 21 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET May 19 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET May 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET May 19 $2 +$3 +128%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET May 19 $223 +$78 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET May 18 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET May 18 $7 −$2 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET May 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET May 18 $10 −$5 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET May 18 $7 −$4 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET May 18 $5 +$7 +142%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET May 18 $2 −$2 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET May 13 $13 −$6 -42%
Solana Up or Down - May 12, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET May 13 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET May 13 $5 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET May 13 $5 +$1 +14%
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? May 13 $15 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET May 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET May 13 $5 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET May 13 $2 −$2 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET SELL Up 39¢ $61 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $37 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $38 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $28 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET SELL Up 44¢ $28 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $27 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET SELL Up 40¢ $26 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $20 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET SELL Up 63¢ $96 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $57 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $57 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $53 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET SELL Up 68¢ $54 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $29 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET SELL Down 64¢ $29 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $21 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET SELL Down 14¢ $21 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Down 14¢ $23 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET SELL Down 57¢ $103 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $100 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $29 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET SELL Up 79¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET SELL Up 47¢ $13 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET SELL Down 62¢ $91 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $85 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $22 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $20 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 836 history records