Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T19:22:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BD 0xbd38…92e2 world 17 markets active 1h ago coverage 386d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$128 (-14%) realized −$125 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate25%4W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$52per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$312now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% −$40
world 29% −$67
tech 19% −$28
politics 6% +$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-19.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d no closed markets
all 16 -10.6% -19.2% 25% 19% -29.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.2% 19% -29.3%
10% -26.9% 19% -36.1%
15% -34.0% 12% -42.2%
20% -40.4% 12% -47.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 62% · top 2 80% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI — too few recent
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +13% → late -35% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$12 · ×0.32 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.11 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

386d coverage
Net worth$312
Realized−$125
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses4 / 12
Open positions1
Markets (closed)16 / 17
History coverage386d
Avg bet$52
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 16 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $314 $312 −$3 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel x Iran ceasefire before July? Jul 06 $42 −$10 -23%
Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July? Jul 06 $39 −$35 -89%
Will Tesla launch a driverless Robotaxi service before July? Jun 24 $145 −$28 -19%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran before July? Jun 24 $67 −$1 -1%
Will Tesla launch a driverless Robotaxi service before August? Jun 23 $25 $0 -0%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 45–50 million views on day 1? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -88%
US military action against Iran before July? Jun 22 $91 −$40 -44%
Earthquake 7.0 or above in June? Jun 21 $51 −$1 -2%
Will the US officially declare war on Iran before July? Jun 20 $28 −$18 -64%
Will China invade Taiwan in 2025? Jun 17 $29 +$1 +4%
Will Donald Trump visit France in 2025? Jun 16 $31 −$6 -20%
Will Donald Trump visit Canada in 2025? Jun 11 $1 $0 -20%
Will Donald Trump visit Taiwan in 2025? Jun 11 $1 $0 -14%
Trump and Elon publicly reconcile before July? Jun 11 $5 +$2 +35%
Will Trump meet with Elon Musk by July 31? Jun 11 $3 +$3 +94%
Will Trump meet with Elon Musk by June 30? Jun 11 $10 +$9 +92%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $323 1h
Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July? BUY Yes 2¢ $8 357d
Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 357d
Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July? BUY Yes 3¢ $20 357d
Israel x Iran ceasefire before July? BUY No 1¢ $4 367d
Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July? SELL Yes 16¢ $4 367d
Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July? BUY Yes 24¢ $6 368d
Israel x Iran ceasefire before July? SELL No 1¢ $6 368d
Israel x Iran ceasefire before July? BUY No 1¢ $10 368d
Will Tesla launch a driverless Robotaxi service before July? SELL Yes 9¢ $10 368d
Will Tesla launch a driverless Robotaxi service before July? BUY Yes 10¢ $11 369d
Israel x Iran ceasefire before July? SELL No 1¢ $11 369d
Israel x Iran ceasefire before July? BUY No 1¢ $14 369d
Israel x Iran ceasefire before July? SELL No 1¢ $14 369d
Israel x Iran ceasefire before July? BUY No 1¢ $13 369d
Will Tesla launch a driverless Robotaxi service before July? SELL Yes 9¢ $13 369d
Will Tesla launch a driverless Robotaxi service before July? BUY Yes 10¢ $14 369d
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran before July? SELL Yes 33¢ $14 369d
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran before July? BUY Yes 54¢ $23 369d
Will Tesla launch a driverless Robotaxi service before July? SELL Yes 9¢ $23 369d
Will Tesla launch a driverless Robotaxi service before July? BUY Yes 10¢ $26 369d
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran before July? SELL Yes 53¢ $26 369d
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran before July? BUY Yes 62¢ $30 369d
Will Tesla launch a driverless Robotaxi service before July? SELL Yes 7¢ $30 369d
Will Tesla launch a driverless Robotaxi service before July? BUY Yes 9¢ $26 369d
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran before July? SELL Yes 47¢ $26 369d
Will Tesla launch a driverless Robotaxi service before July? BUY Yes 12¢ $16 369d
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran before July? BUY Yes 25¢ $14 369d
Will Tesla launch a driverless Robotaxi service before July? SELL Yes 10¢ $30 369d
Will Tesla launch a driverless Robotaxi service before July? BUY Yes 12¢ $26 370d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $311.51 · official $311.51 (match) · 63 history records