Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T03:59:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
BD 0xbd38…99d4 sports 841 markets active 4h ago coverage 54d
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 54d only
✗ bot/MM pace (52 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$10,206 (+2%) realized +$10,234 · open −$28
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate59%493W / 341L
Whale WR58%big bets
Drawdown86%max
Avg bet$602per market
Trades / day51.5pace
Fees−$2,549est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$1,441now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$39,737
7 days−$36,931
14 days−$28,454
30 days−$14,624
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 61% −$4,854
sports 36% +$13,089
other 3% −$781
crypto 0% −$235
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (52 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)-5.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 114 -1.5% -10.8% 57% 54% -32.7%
≤30d 411 +6.0% -4.1% 61% 59% -13.2%
≤90d 834 +4.8% -5.2% 59% 57% -8.2%
all 834 +4.8% -5.2% 59% 57% -8.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover51.5 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -5.2% 57% -8.2%
10% -14.2% 54% -17.0%
15% ← realistic here -22.5% 49% -25.0%
20% -30.1% 44% -32.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 58% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +5% → late +4% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$234 vs −$318 · ×0.74 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.07 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

54d coverage
Net worth$1,441
Realized+$10,234
Unrealized−$28
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses493 / 341
Whale WR (big bets)58%
Est. fees paid−$2,549
Open positions7
Markets (closed)834 / 841
History coverage54d ⚠
Avg bet$602
Trades / day51.5
Drawdown86%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 834 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Yes 51¢ 100¢ $255 $500 +$245 (+96%)
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Yes 38¢ 42¢ $342 $382 +$41 (+12%)
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Card) Ilia Topuria 80¢ 80¢ $320 $318 −$2 (-1%)
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 7.5 Under 56¢ 48¢ $280 $240 −$40 (-14%)
Will Iran advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 60¢ 62¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+3%)
O/U 2.5 Rounds Over 63¢ $189 $0 −$189 (-100%)
Fight to Go the Distance? Yes 59¢ $83 $0 −$83 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 159 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mauricio Ruffy win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $397 +$159 +40%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 15 $298 +$302 +101%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $262 +$38 +14%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $83,948 −$32,954 -39%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $269 +$231 +86%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $8,412 −$648 -8%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $3,586 −$45 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $6,732 −$5,711 -85%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $252 +$156 +62%
Germany leading at halftime? Jun 14 $249 +$51 +20%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $253 +$47 +18%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Jun 14 $430 −$423 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $239 −$235 -98%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $286 −$284 -99%
Will HUS Agadir win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $230 −$228 -99%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $211 −$8 -4%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $294 −$292 -99%
Game Handicap: GEN (-1.5) vs T1 (+1.5) Jun 14 $144 +$216 +150%
Set Handicap: Zaytseva (-1.5) vs Mettraux (+1.5) Jun 14 $269 −$265 -99%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $121 +$79 +65%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $133 +$67 +50%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $318 +$182 +57%
OG Anunoby: Points O/U 17.5 Jun 14 $157 −$155 -98%
OG Anunoby: Points O/U 18.5 Jun 14 $268 −$261 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 218.5 Jun 14 $284 +$206 +72%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $244 +$256 +105%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Brazil O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $166 +$34 +20%
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 13 $294 −$245 -83%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $749 −$53 -7%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 13 $1,525 −$117 -8%
Switzerland leading at halftime? Jun 13 $212 +$143 +67%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 13 $1,098 +$38 +4%
Brazil to score first vs. Morocco? Jun 13 $263 −$260 -99%
HSBC Championships: Emma Raducanu vs Kamilla Rakhimova Jun 13 $191 +$49 +26%
Raducanu vs. Rakhimova: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 13 $58 +$37 +64%
Set Handicap: Raducanu (-1.5) vs Rakhimova (+1.5) Jun 13 $243 +$157 +65%
Game Handicap: GEN (-2.5) vs KT Rolster (+2.5) Jun 13 $203 +$197 +97%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 13 $7,555 +$142 +2%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $236 +$64 +27%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $235 −$232 -99%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Qatar O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $173 −$171 -99%
Set Handicap: Shevchenko (-1.5) vs Sachko (+1.5) Jun 13 $197 −$195 -99%
Bratislava: Alexander Shevchenko vs Vitaliy Sachko Jun 13 $171 −$168 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $244 −$243 -99%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $318 −$315 -99%
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 13 $307 +$4 +1%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Jun 13 $1,686 +$190 +11%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 8.5 Jun 13 $225 +$145 +65%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 13 $404 +$296 +73%
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) Jun 13 $414 +$386 +93%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 83¢ $3,559 3h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 83¢ $1,000 3h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 83¢ $86 3h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 82¢ $916 4h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 82¢ $1,831 4h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 88¢ $5,000 5h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 85¢ $2,800 5h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 26¢ $1,468 5h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 26¢ $1,507 5h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 27¢ $1,024 5h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 28¢ $1,084 5h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 26¢ $1,571 5h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 26¢ $8 5h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 41¢ $5,600 5h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 31¢ $3,500 5h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 59¢ $1,161 6h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 63¢ $1,256 6h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 25¢ $4,068 6h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 57¢ $325 6h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 62¢ $510 6h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 27¢ $1,969 6h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 11¢ $902 6h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 27¢ $119 6h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 33¢ $2,659 6h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 33¢ $1,985 6h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 33¢ $6,430 6h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 33¢ $925 6h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 70¢ $521 6h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 70¢ $324 6h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 72¢ $1,007 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,440.71 · official $1,441.09 (match) · 3500 history records