Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T04:34:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
BD 0xbd3b…4e38 crypto 152 markets active 2h ago coverage 247d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$9 (+0%) realized +$9 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate99%148W / 2L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$36per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$60now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 96% +$7
politics 3% +$1
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 39 +0.2% -9.4% 97% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 72 +0.1% -9.4% 99% 0% -9.4%
all 150 +0.2% -9.4% 99% 0% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 0% -9.4%
10% -18.0% 0% -18.0%
15% -26.0% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×3.04 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×224.81 per $1 lost it wins $224.81
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

247d coverage
Net worth$60
Realized+$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)99%
Wins / losses148 / 2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)150 / 152
History coverage247d
Avg bet$36
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 150 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $78,000 June 22-28? No 100¢ 100¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-0%)
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 June 22-28? No 100¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 24? Jun 24 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 24? Jun 24 $10 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $75 on June 23? Jun 24 $10 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 23? Jun 24 $20 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 23? Jun 23 $20 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 on June 22? Jun 23 $40 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $100 June 15-21? Jun 22 $10 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 June 15-21? Jun 22 $30 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $1,850 on June 19? Jun 20 $10 $0 -0%
Bitcoin above 64,200 on June 19, 9PM ET? Jun 20 $10 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $80 on June 17? Jun 18 $30 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 on June 17? Jun 18 $38 $0 +0%
Bitcoin above 65,600 on June 17, 10PM ET? Jun 18 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $40 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 June 8-14? Jun 15 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 14? Jun 14 $10 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $55 on June 13? Jun 14 $10 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $78,000 June 8-14? Jun 13 $40 $0 +0%
Bitcoin above 62,200 on June 10, 8PM ET? Jun 13 $5 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 9? Jun 10 $10 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 on June 8? Jun 10 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 9? Jun 10 $30 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $150 June 1-7? Jun 08 $20 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $86,000 June 1-7? Jun 08 $50 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $100 June 1-7? Jun 08 $50 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 June 1-7? Jun 05 $30 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on June 3? Jun 05 $20 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 3? Jun 05 $40 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on June 2? Jun 02 $30 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in May? Jun 02 $10 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in May? Jun 02 $20 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on June 1? Jun 02 $30 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $81,000 on May 31? Jun 02 $50 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 on May 28? May 31 $20 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on May 28? May 31 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $100 and $110 on May 21? May 28 $10 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 May 18-24? May 28 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 21? May 28 $10 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,700 May 18-24? May 28 $50 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $84,000 on May 18? May 21 $50 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $74,000 on May 15? May 18 $50 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 12? May 16 $20 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $78,000 on May 11? May 16 $20 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $78,000 May 4-10? May 12 $10 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $94,000 May 4-10? May 12 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on May 11? May 12 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 11? May 12 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on May 10? May 10 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $88,000 on May 10? May 10 $30 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $77,000 on May 5? May 09 $10 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin reach $78,000 June 22-28? BUY No 100¢ $50 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 June 22-28? BUY No 100¢ $10 1h
Will Solana reach $75 on June 23? BUY No 100¢ $10 3d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 24? BUY No 100¢ $10 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 24? BUY No 100¢ $10 3d
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 23? BUY No 100¢ $20 3d
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $10 4d
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $30 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 23? BUY Yes 100¢ $10 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 23? BUY Yes 100¢ $10 4d
Will Ethereum reach $1,850 on June 19? SELL No 100¢ $10 7d
Will Solana reach $100 June 15-21? BUY No 100¢ $10 7d
Will Ethereum reach $1,850 on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $10 7d
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 June 15-21? BUY No 100¢ $30 7d
Bitcoin above 64,200 on June 19, 9PM ET? BUY No 100¢ $10 7d
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $8 9d
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $22 9d
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $8 9d
Will Solana reach $80 on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $30 9d
Bitcoin above 65,600 on June 17, 10PM ET? BUY No 100¢ $10 9d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $40 12d
Will Solana dip to $55 on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $10 13d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $10 13d
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 June 8-14? BUY No 100¢ $10 13d
Will Bitcoin reach $78,000 June 8-14? SELL No 100¢ $40 13d
Will Bitcoin reach $78,000 June 8-14? BUY No 100¢ $40 16d
Bitcoin above 62,200 on June 10, 8PM ET? BUY No 99¢ $5 16d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 9? BUY Yes 100¢ $10 18d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $30 18d
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 on June 8? BUY No 100¢ $10 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $59.91 · official $59.91 (match) · 319 history records