Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T22:57:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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BD 0xbd3c…fc78 sports 1034 markets active 1h ago coverage 39d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 39d only
✗ bot/MM pace (73 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$2,468 (-9%) realized −$2,443 · open −$25
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate53%529W / 475L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day73.3pace
Fees−$203est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$848now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$75
7 days−$1,285
14 days−$1,769
30 days−$2,509
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 55% −$2,235
other 29% −$71
world 5% +$224
politics 5% −$100
finance 3% +$30
crypto 1% −$4
weather 1% −$129
tech 0% +$17
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (73 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-10.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 323 +6.1% -4.0% 68% 27% -20.1%
≤30d 844 -6.6% -15.5% 50% 29% -18.7%
≤90d 1004 -1.3% -10.7% 53% 31% -17.2%
all 1004 -1.3% -10.7% 53% 31% -17.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover73.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.7% 31% -17.2%
10% ← realistic here -19.2% 21% -25.1%
15% -27.0% 16% -32.3%
20% -34.2% 13% -39.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
41% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$14 · ×0.6 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.67 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

39d coverage
Net worth$848
Realized−$2,443
Unrealized−$25
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses529 / 475
Est. fees paid−$203
Open positions31
Markets (closed)1004 / 1034
History coverage39d ⚠
Avg bet$26
Trades / day73.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 31 History 1004 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Yes 83¢ 86¢ $106 $110 +$4 (+3%)
Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026? Yes 34¢ 37¢ $100 $109 +$9 (+9%)
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 83¢ 88¢ $99 $106 +$7 (+7%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? No 80¢ 96¢ $60 $72 +$12 (+21%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of December? No 78¢ 86¢ $50 $55 +$5 (+11%)
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? No 78¢ 99¢ $23 $30 +$6 (+27%)
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? Yes 80¢ 92¢ $25 $29 +$4 (+14%)
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 81¢ 82¢ $25 $25 +$0 (+2%)
Will Zelenskyy talk to Putin by December 31? No 73¢ 66¢ $26 $24 −$3 (-10%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Yes 30¢ 46¢ $15 $23 +$8 (+55%)
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? No 61¢ 82¢ $15 $20 +$5 (+34%)
GV CD San José vs. CD Real Tomayapo: O/U 1.5 Over 83¢ 52¢ $32 $20 −$12 (-38%)
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 41¢ 50¢ $16 $19 +$4 (+23%)
Will Qatar advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 83¢ 74¢ $18 $16 −$2 (-11%)
Will Mike Lindell win the 2026 Minnesota Governor Republican primary election? Yes 18¢ 16¢ $15 $15 −$1 (-6%)
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House Yes 46¢ 42¢ $15 $14 −$1 (-8%)
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? No 70¢ 55¢ $17 $13 −$4 (-22%)
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 68¢ 48¢ $18 $13 −$6 (-30%)
Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (LOW) $174 in June? Yes 39¢ 32¢ $15 $12 −$3 (-18%)
Will another country recognize Somaliland by June 30? No 78¢ 97¢ $8 $10 +$2 (+24%)
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? Yes 61¢ 56¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-9%)
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.80 in June? Yes 23¢ 14¢ $14 $9 −$5 (-39%)
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? Yes 71¢ 89¢ $6 $8 +$2 (+25%)
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 34¢ 34¢ $8 $7 −$0 (-1%)
Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (HIGH) $156 in June? Yes 19¢ 12¢ $11 $7 −$4 (-39%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 115 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Sport Lisboa e Benfica win on 2026-04-06? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $22 +$30 +134%
Exact Score: England 3 - 3 Croatia? Jun 17 $59 +$8 +13%
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $29 +$19 +67%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 17 $11 +$41 +365%
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $32 +$23 +73%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $50 +$6 +11%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $125 +$83 +66%
Will Croatia win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $66 +$3 +4%
Will England win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $33 +$2 +6%
Exact Score: England 3 - 2 Croatia? Jun 17 $74 −$3 -4%
Will Croatia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 17 $3 $0 -7%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $35 $0 -1%
Exact Score: England 2 - 2 Croatia? Jun 17 $32 −$2 -7%
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $30 +$1 +3%
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $31 +$2 +5%
Croatia to score first vs. England? Jun 17 $30 −$1 -4%
Exact Score: England 0 - 0 Croatia? Jun 17 $30 $0 -2%
England to score first vs. Croatia? Jun 17 $30 $0 -1%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $32 +$5 +17%
Will DR Congo advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu Jun 17 $8 $0 -6%
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $18 −$2 -10%
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $80 +$4 +5%
Iraq vs. Norway: Neither team to score first? Jun 17 $80 +$1 +1%
Austria vs. Jordan: Jordan O/U 1.5 Corners Jun 17 $5 $0 +2%
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $3 +$3 +100%
Will Algeria win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $79 +$4 +5%
Austria to score first vs. Jordan? Jun 17 $7 $0 +2%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $9 $0 +2%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $5 +$5 +100%
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $37 +$4 +12%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 0 Jordan? Jun 17 $19 +$6 +30%
Austria vs. Jordan: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $50 +$1 +2%
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 0 Jordan? Jun 17 $29 +$3 +12%
Austria vs. Jordan: Neither team to score first? Jun 17 $50 +$1 +2%
Exact Score: Austria 0 - 0 Jordan? Jun 17 $30 +$2 +7%
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 2 Jordan? Jun 17 $31 +$4 +12%
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 0 Jordan? Jun 17 $34 +$7 +21%
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 3 Jordan? Jun 17 $50 +$1 +2%
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 1 Jordan? Jun 17 $50 +$1 +2%
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria 2nd Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $50 +$1 +2%
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $50 +$1 +2%
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $100 −$18 -18%
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 4.5 Corners Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Austria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 17 $79 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 2 Jordan? Jun 17 $13 $0 -2%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? Jun 17 $9 −$3 -32%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $50 −$13 -26%
Austria vs. Jordan: Jordan O/U 3.5 Corners Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Croatia win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 93¢ $43 51m
Will England win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 83¢ $22 1h
Exact Score: England 3 - 3 Croatia? BUY No 88¢ $59 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 52¢ $91 1h
Exact Score: England 3 - 2 Croatia? SELL No 76¢ $71 1h
Exact Score: England 3 - 2 Croatia? BUY No 78¢ $74 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 80¢ $34 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 79¢ $34 1h
Will England win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 78¢ $4 1h
Will Croatia win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 82¢ $38 1h
Will England win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 68¢ $2 1h
Will Croatia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup SELL Yes 72¢ $3 2h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 77¢ $34 2h
Exact Score: England 2 - 2 Croatia? SELL No 77¢ $30 2h
Will Croatia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY Yes 77¢ $3 2h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 77¢ $35 2h
Exact Score: England 2 - 2 Croatia? BUY No 82¢ $32 2h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 90¢ $50 2h
Will England win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 67¢ $13 2h
Will England win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 68¢ $12 2h
Will Croatia win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 72¢ $13 2h
Will Croatia win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 78¢ $14 2h
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 57¢ $32 2h
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 42¢ $22 2h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 21¢ $11 2h
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 0.5 BUY Over 59¢ $29 2h
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 0.5 SELL Over 95¢ $31 2h
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 88¢ $32 2h
Croatia to score first vs. England? SELL No 82¢ $29 2h
Exact Score: England 0 - 0 Croatia? SELL No 92¢ $29 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $848.36 · official $848.36 (match) · 3500 history records