Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:15:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
BD 0xbd3c…5637 sports 10 markets active 1h ago coverage 57d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$503 (-18%) realized −$503 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate44%4W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$286per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$31est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$40now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$53
30 days+$758
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% −$508
other 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-22.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 3 +62.3% +46.9% 67% 67% +102.2%
≤90d 9 -14.1% -22.3% 44% 44% -25.9%
all 9 -14.1% -22.3% 44% 44% -25.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.3% 44% -25.9%
10% -29.7% 44% -33.0%
15% -36.5% 33% -39.5%
20% -42.7% 33% -45.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 75% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$271 vs −$318 · ×0.85 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

57d coverage
Net worth$40
Realized−$503
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses4 / 5
Est. fees paid−$31
Open positions1
Markets (closed)9 / 10
History coverage57d
Avg bet$286
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? No 83¢ 82¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $53 −$53 -99%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $262 +$338 +129%
Golden Knights vs. Avalanche May 23 $299 +$473 +158%
Golden Knights vs. Ducks May 14 $331 −$326 -98%
Thunder vs. Lakers May 12 $349 +$101 +29%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 09 $300 +$171 +57%
Flyers vs. Penguins Apr 27 $220 −$217 -98%
Celtics vs. 76ers Apr 24 $141 −$138 -98%
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs Apr 21 $860 −$856 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 83¢ $40 1h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 66¢ $53 13d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Spurs 43¢ $262 19d
Golden Knights vs. Avalanche BUY Golden Knights 38¢ $299 27d
Golden Knights vs. Ducks BUY Ducks 50¢ $331 34d
Thunder vs. Lakers BUY Thunder 77¢ $349 39d
Spurs vs. Timberwolves BUY Spurs 63¢ $300 40d
Flyers vs. Penguins BUY Flyers 45¢ $220 50d
Celtics vs. 76ers BUY 76ers 34¢ $141 54d
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 86¢ $860 57d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $39.60 · official $39.60 (match) · 14 history records