Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T22:02:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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BD 0xbd46…e514 crypto 1627 markets active 0h ago coverage 130d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 129d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$303 (-1%) realized −$302 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate85%1386W / 240L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day19.0pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$168
14 days−$167
30 days−$275
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 72% −$253
weather 16% −$22
other 8% −$13
sports 1% −$50
finance 1% −$28
tech 1% −$27
politics 1% −$8
world 0% −$3
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-10.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 -12.6% -20.9% 50% 7% -22.7%
≤30d 83 -12.9% -21.2% 39% 6% -19.3%
≤90d 1018 -1.8% -11.2% 83% 7% -11.4%
all 1626 -1.0% -10.5% 85% 7% -10.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.5% 7% -10.7%
10% -19.0% 3% -19.2%
15% -26.9% 2% -27.0%
20% -34.0% 2% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$5 · ×0.11 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.65 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

130d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$302
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)85%
Wins / losses1386 / 240
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1626 / 1627
History coverage130d ⚠
Avg bet$20
Trades / day19.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1626 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-75%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
XRP Up or Down - June 28, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 28 $40 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 28, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 28 $40 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 28, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 28 $40 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 28 $40 +$1 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 28 $40 +$1 +2%
XRP Up or Down - June 28, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 28 $40 +$1 +2%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 28 $40 +$1 +3%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 28 $15 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 28, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 28 $40 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 28, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 28 $40 $0 +1%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 28 $40 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 28°C on June 30? Jun 28 $66 −$9 -13%
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 30? Jun 28 $52 −$3 -7%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 30? Jun 28 $8 $0 -4%
Will South Africa advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA Worl Jun 26 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 24 $100 −$100 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 24 $100 +$3 +3%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on June 26? Jun 24 $3 $0 -7%
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 24 $27 +$3 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 25? Jun 24 $25 −$1 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on June 26? Jun 24 $16 −$1 -4%
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be appointed by July 31? Jun 24 $15 −$8 -55%
Will there be 5+ trades in the first round of the 2026 NBA Draft? Jun 24 $4 −$1 -13%
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be appointed by December 31? Jun 24 $58 $0 -0%
XRP Up or Down - June 23, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 23 $100 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 25? Jun 23 $13 $0 -2%
Will the announcers say "Golden Boot" during the Portugal vs Uzbekista Jun 23 $80 −$53 -67%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 31? Jun 23 $51 −$2 -5%
Will Uruguay advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 22 $13 +$2 +16%
Will Cape Verde advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Jun 22 $3 −$1 -48%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 23? Jun 21 $1 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 30°C on June 23? Jun 21 $4 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 23? Jun 21 $65 −$2 -3%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on June 23? Jun 21 $22 $0 -2%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 21 $101 +$11 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C on June 23? Jun 21 $30 −$2 -5%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 23? Jun 21 $28 −$1 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on June 23? Jun 21 $32 −$3 -10%
Will Ecuador advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 21 $11 −$5 -41%
Will Croatia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 21 $10 −$1 -12%
Will Netherlands advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Jun 20 $11 +$1 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on June 22? Jun 20 $3 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 22? Jun 20 $0 $0 -8%
Will Qatar advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $8 +$1 +10%
Will Mexico advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $8 +$1 +7%
XRP Up or Down - June 18, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 18 $40 $0 +0%
XRP Up or Down - June 18, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 18 $61 +$1 +1%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on Jun 18 $36 −$1 -2%
Will Elliot Anderson stay at Nottingham Forest? Jun 18 $19 −$1 -4%
Will Colombia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu Jun 18 $12 +$1 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
XRP Up or Down - June 28, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $40 2m
XRP Up or Down - June 28, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $40 17m
XRP Up or Down - June 28, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $40 22m
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $40 32m
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $40 42m
XRP Up or Down - June 28, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $40 52m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $40 1h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $15 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 28, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $40 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 28, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $40 1h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $40 1h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 28°C on June 30? SELL Yes 37¢ $57 1h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 28°C on June 30? BUY Yes 41¢ $41 1h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 28°C on June 30? BUY Yes 42¢ $25 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 30? SELL No 62¢ $49 2h
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 30? BUY No 65¢ $39 2h
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 30? BUY No 66¢ $13 2h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 30? SELL Yes 30¢ $7 13h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 30? BUY Yes 30¢ $4 13h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 30? BUY Yes 30¢ $3 13h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 30? BUY Yes 30¢ $1 13h
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $100 4d
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $100 4d
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on June 26? SELL Yes 54¢ $2 4d
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on June 26? BUY Yes 57¢ $3 4d
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $27 4d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 25? SELL No 59¢ $14 4d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 25? BUY No 59¢ $14 4d
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on June 26? SELL No 55¢ $2 4d
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on June 26? BUY No 56¢ $2 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.25 · official $0.25 (match) · 3500 history records