Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T10:42:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BD 0xbd46…3f22 crypto 12 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$35 (+4%) realized +$35 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%4W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$66per market
Trades / day18.0pace
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% −$123
other 2% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-27.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -20.2% -27.8% 33% 33% -23.8%
≤30d 12 -20.2% -27.8% 33% 33% -23.8%
≤90d 12 -20.2% -27.8% 33% 33% -23.8%
all 12 -20.2% -27.8% 33% 33% -23.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -27.8% 33% -23.8%
10% -34.7% 33% -31.1%
15% -41.0% 33% -37.8%
20% -46.8% 33% -43.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 66% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -38% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$76 vs −$53 · ×1.42 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$35
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses4 / 8
Open positions0
Markets (closed)12 / 12
History coverage1d
Avg bet$66
Trades / day18.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 12 Trades
no open positions (5 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 24 $104 −$99 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 24 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 24 $103 +$96 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 24 $104 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 24 $104 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 24 $103 +$79 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 24 $26 +$25 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 24 $26 −$25 -97%
New Rihanna Album before GTA VI? Jun 24 $2 $0 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 24 $104 +$103 +99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $14 $0 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $104 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $104 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $104 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $103 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $104 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $103 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $26 1h
New Rihanna Album before GTA VI? SELL Yes 51¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $2 2h
New Rihanna Album before GTA VI? BUY Yes 52¢ $1 2h
New Rihanna Album before GTA VI? SELL Yes 51¢ $1 3h
New Rihanna Album before GTA VI? BUY Yes 52¢ $1 3h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 85¢ $13 17h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 86¢ $5 17h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 86¢ $4 17h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 86¢ $4 22h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.00 · official $1.00 (match) · 22 history records