Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T06:14:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BD 0xbd46…38ee crypto 20 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ bot/MM pace (363 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$37 (-3%) realized −$37 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate20%4W / 16L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$53per market
Trades / day363.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$37
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (363 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-21.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 -13.4% -21.7% 20% 15% -13.2%
≤30d 20 -13.4% -21.7% 20% 15% -13.2%
≤90d 20 -13.4% -21.7% 20% 15% -13.2%
all 20 -13.4% -21.7% 20% 15% -13.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover363.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -21.7% 15% -13.2%
10% ← realistic here -29.2% 10% -21.5%
15% -36.0% 0% -29.1%
20% -42.3% 0% -36.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 82% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -24% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
17.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$5 · ×2.09 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.52 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$37
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses4 / 16
Open positions0
Markets (closed)20 / 20
History coverage1d
Avg bet$53
Trades / day363.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 20 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 15 $49 −$14 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 15 $56 −$1 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 15 $69 −$1 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 15 $12 −$5 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 15 $36 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 15 $8 −$3 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 15 $23 −$4 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 15 $39 −$5 -14%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 15 $54 +$18 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 15 $88 +$5 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 15 $36 −$3 -9%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 15 $14 −$2 -17%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 15 $19 −$1 -8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 15 $30 −$1 -2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 15 $77 −$2 -3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 15 $144 −$8 -6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 15 $71 +$2 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 15 $51 +$16 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 15 $129 −$10 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 15 $55 −$14 -26%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 14¢ $1 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $10 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $1 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $1 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $1 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $2 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $2 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $5 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $4 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $4 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $5 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $6 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $6 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $3 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $0 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $0 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $0 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $1 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $10 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $2 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $2 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $8 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $2 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $4 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $4 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $1 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $2 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $1 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $5 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $5 42m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 391 history records