Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T03:46:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
BD 0xbd48…0074 other 10 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover
Total PnL −$30 (-5%) realized −$2 · open −$28
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +4% what you keep after slip
Net edge+4%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate38%3W / 5L
Drawdown31%max
Avg bet$55per market
Trades / day9.1pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit40%portable
Net worth$320now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 89% +$78
sports 11% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)+12.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +24.3% +12.4% 38% 38% +39.4%
≤30d 8 +24.3% +12.4% 38% 38% +39.4%
≤90d 8 +24.3% +12.4% 38% 38% +39.4%
all 8 +24.3% +12.4% 38% 38% +39.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +12.4% 38% +39.4%
10% +1.7% 38% +26.1%
15% -8.1% 38% +13.9%
20% -17.2% 38% +2.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 62% · top 2 85% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +53% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +24% · $-wt +53% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$45 vs −$10 · ×4.65 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.79 per $1 lost it wins $2.79
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$320
Realized−$2
Unrealized−$28
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses3 / 5
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)8 / 10
History coverage3d
Avg bet$55
Trades / day9.1
Drawdown31%
Kalshi-fit40%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $248 $216 −$32 (-13%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 88¢ 92¢ $100 $104 +$4 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $47 +$84 +178%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $20 −$7 -33%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $22 +$21 +94%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $56 +$30 +54%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $9 −$1 -15%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -99%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 88¢ $100 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $131 2h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 27¢ $6 3h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 27¢ $10 4h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 15¢ $13 6h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 17¢ $20 7h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $31 17h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $20 21h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 42¢ $31 21h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 11¢ $6 22h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? SELL Yes 46¢ $41 22h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 23h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $11 23h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $87 24h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $48 27h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 65¢ $8 27h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 9¢ $8 27h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 27h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $9 39h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 10¢ $9 39h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 39h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $10 39h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $9 2d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $205 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $320.05 · official $320.05 (match) · 27 history records