Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T10:40:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

BD 0xbd4d…06a1 crypto 19 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d

UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL −$20 (-10%) realized −$20 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip

Net edge-30%after slip

Net WR42%break-even

Win rate68%13W / 6L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$11per market

Trades / day42.0pace

Kalshi-fit100%portable

Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +42%

net ROI/market (all)-17.8%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	19	-9.1%	-17.8%	68%	42%	-27.2%
≤30d	19	-9.1%	-17.8%	68%	42%	-27.2%
≤90d	19	-9.1%	-17.8%	68%	42%	-27.2%
all	19	-9.1%	-17.8%	68%	42%	-27.2%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover42.0 tr/day

realistic slip~13%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal	-17.8%	42%	-27.2%
10% ← realistic here	-25.7%	32%	-34.2%
15%	-32.8%	26%	-40.5%
20%	-39.4%	21%	-46.4%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 46% · top 2 63% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -20% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

38% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -9% · $-wt -20% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +12% → late -28% edge faded

Add-ons / DCA

1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

+$3 vs −$13 · ×0.25 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.53 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$0

Realized−$20

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)68%

Wins / losses13 / 6

Open positions0

Markets (closed)19 / 19

History coverage1d

Avg bet$11

Trades / day42.0

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 0 History 19 Trades

no open positions (5 resolved losses — in realized PnL)

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET	Jun 16	$5	−$5	-96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET	Jun 16	$4	+$1	+20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET	Jun 16	$3	$0	+8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET	Jun 16	$3	$0	+16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET	Jun 16	$3	+$1	+42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET	Jun 16	$5	−$5	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET	Jun 16	$5	−$5	-97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET	Jun 16	$10	+$1	+7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET	Jun 16	$5	+$1	+23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET	Jun 16	$41	−$40	-97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET	Jun 16	$31	+$19	+61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET	Jun 16	$10	+$1	+10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET	Jun 16	$10	+$1	+7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET	Jun 16	$10	+$7	+64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET	Jun 16	$11	−$10	-96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET	Jun 16	$36	−$10	-28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET	Jun 16	$5	+$4	+84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET	Jun 16	$5	+$4	+79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET	Jun 16	$5	$0	+4%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET	BUY Up	44¢	$5	28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET	SELL Up	99¢	$5	29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET	BUY Up	81¢	$4	32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET	BUY Up	92¢	$3	46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET	SELL Down	99¢	$4	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET	BUY Down	84¢	$3	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET	SELL Up	99¢	$4	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET	BUY Up	68¢	$3	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET	BUY Up	60¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET	BUY Up	50¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET	BUY Up	96¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET	BUY Up	90¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET	SELL Up	99¢	$6	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET	BUY Up	79¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET	BUY Up	1¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET	BUY Up	39¢	$5	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET	BUY Up	60¢	$5	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET	BUY Up	64¢	$26	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET	SELL Up	99¢	$50	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET	BUY Up	54¢	$5	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET	BUY Up	63¢	$5	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET	BUY Up	61¢	$21	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET	SELL Up	99¢	$11	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET	BUY Up	96¢	$5	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET	BUY Up	84¢	$5	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET	SELL Up	98¢	$11	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET	BUY Up	93¢	$5	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET	BUY Up	88¢	$5	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET	SELL Up	99¢	$17	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET	BUY Up	85¢	$5	2h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 48 history records