Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:29:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
BD 0xbd4d…d98b crypto 88 markets active 0h ago coverage 32d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$253 (+2%) realized +$253 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR69%break-even
Win rate74%65W / 23L
Drawdown92%max
Avg bet$115per market
Trades / day9.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$663
7 days−$538
14 days+$140
30 days+$220
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$187
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +69%
net ROI/market (all)-5.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 34 -9.1% -17.7% 65% 65% -19.4%
≤30d 76 +7.3% -2.9% 75% 71% -7.5%
≤90d 88 +4.8% -5.1% 74% 69% -7.9%
all 88 +4.8% -5.1% 74% 69% -7.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.1% 69% -7.9%
10% -14.2% 45% -16.7%
15% -22.5% 27% -24.7%
20% -30.1% 15% -32.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +15% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$38 vs −$99 · ×0.38 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.08 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

32d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$253
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)74%
Wins / losses65 / 23
Open positions0
Markets (closed)88 / 88
History coverage32d
Avg bet$115
Trades / day9.1
Drawdown92%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 88 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 17 $91 +$48 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 17 $46 +$26 +57%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 17 $117 −$113 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 17 $116 −$114 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 17 $11 +$2 +14%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 17 $155 +$35 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 16 $86 +$19 +22%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 16 $98 +$29 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 16 $17 +$7 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 16 $94 +$17 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 16 $225 +$71 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 16 $14 +$7 +46%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 16 $150 +$41 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 16 $51 +$37 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 15 $90 −$90 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 15 $191 −$191 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 15 $58 −$58 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 15 $54 −$54 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 15 $342 −$342 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 15 $41 −$41 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 15 $63 +$18 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 15 $393 +$139 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 15 $239 +$29 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 15 $161 +$55 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 15 $139 +$51 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 14 $139 −$33 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 14 $47 +$7 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 12 $292 −$292 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 12 $152 +$56 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 12 $404 +$72 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 11 $83 −$83 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 11 $323 +$40 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 11 $256 −$185 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 10 $202 +$253 +125%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 10 $195 +$22 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 10 $77 +$40 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 10 $186 +$60 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 09 $402 −$203 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 09 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 09 $192 +$45 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 09 $138 +$24 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 08 $200 +$56 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 08 $200 +$53 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 08 $102 +$45 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 08 $124 +$54 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 08 $95 +$6 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 07 $106 +$116 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 07 $17 +$7 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 07 $156 +$75 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 07 $59 +$42 +70%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $91 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $46 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $117 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $116 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $11 7h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $155 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $86 15h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $98 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $17 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $94 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $43 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $37 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $145 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $14 27h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $150 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $51 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $342 45h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $54 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $90 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $23 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $168 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $63 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $58 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $393 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $239 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $161 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $41 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $139 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET SELL Down 55¢ $106 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $139 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 370 history records