Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T22:21:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
BD 0xbd4e…1484 politics 12 markets active 0h ago coverage 139d
RISKYcopy with care politics specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$14 (-0%) realized −$15 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$733per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$707now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 100% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-12.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 1 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 1 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
all 9 -3.7% -12.9% 0% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.9% 0% -9.7%
10% -21.2% 0% -18.3%
15% -28.8% 0% -26.2%
20% -35.8% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
— vs −$1 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

139d coverage
Net worth$707
Realized−$15
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 9
Open positions3
Markets (closed)9 / 12
History coverage139d
Avg bet$733
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $516 $517 +$1 (+0%)
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $189 $189 −$0 (-0%)
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 21 $199 $0 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 09 $1,346 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 09 $9 $0 +0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 06 $1,391 −$1 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 06 $10 −$1 -12%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 06 $13 −$1 -11%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 06 $19 −$2 -9%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 06 $1,784 −$2 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 04 $1,391 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 15m
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $198 38m
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $189 1h
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $199 1h
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no SELL No 98¢ $1,058 111d
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no SELL No 98¢ $0 117d
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no SELL No 98¢ $77 117d
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no SELL No 98¢ $787 117d
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no BUY No 99¢ $2,442 131d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,345 132d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $9 132d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,390 135d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 1¢ $9 135d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $12 135d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $17 135d
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,782 135d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 1¢ $10 136d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,346 136d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,391 137d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,390 137d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,391 137d
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $14 137d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $9 138d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $19 138d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $13 138d
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,770 138d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $706.76 · official $706.76 (match) · 164 history records