Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T13:05:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BD 0xbd50…61bb world 58 markets active 0h ago coverage 482d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$3 (+0%) realized +$3 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate47%27W / 31L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5
7 days+$5
14 days+$6
30 days+$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 69% +$8
other 16% +$1
politics 5% −$10
sports 5% +$2
tech 3% $0
crypto 2% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-10.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +3.8% -6.1% 33% 33% -5.3%
≤30d 22 +0.1% -9.5% 41% 9% -8.7%
≤90d 22 +0.1% -9.5% 41% 9% -8.7%
all 58 -1.4% -10.8% 47% 7% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.8% 7% -9.4%
10% -19.3% 2% -18.1%
15% -27.1% 2% -26.0%
20% -34.3% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 67% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
85% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.69 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.09 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

482d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses27 / 31
Open positions0
Markets (closed)58 / 58
History coverage482d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 58 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 23 $29 −$2 -6%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $40 $0 -0%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 22 $39 +$7 +17%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 16 $45 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $13 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $49 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $18 $0 +2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 14 $4 +$1 +14%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 13 $77 +$1 +2%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 13 $64 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 12 $46 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 12 $3 −$1 -30%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 11 $48 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $49 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 09 $5 $0 +0%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 09 $8 $0 +1%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 07 $43 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 07 $116 +$1 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Jun 05 $18 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 05 $18 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 04 $47 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 03 $35 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before July? Dec 10 $1 $0 +3%
Will Pedri win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Dec 10 $13 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2025 World Series? Jun 28 $6 $0 +5%
Will courts block Trump's tariffs before June? May 29 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the candidate from the New Reform Party win the South Korean Pres May 28 $9 $0 +1%
Will X buy TikTok? May 26 $9 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $90k in May? May 26 $1 −$1 -39%
Will Solana reach $250 in May? May 26 $9 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win Super Bowl 2026? May 25 $9 $0 +0%
Will MicroStrategy hold 600k+ BTC before June? May 24 $10 $0 +0%
Will India invade Pakistan before July? May 23 $7 $0 -0%
Will the Edmonton Oilers win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 22 $4 $0 +0%
Will 'LEveL' win Crunchyroll's Best Anime Song Award for 2025? May 22 $10 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win Super Bowl 2026? May 21 $13 $0 +0%
Will Israel win Eurovision 2025? May 19 $12 +$1 +7%
Will Anders Arborelius be the next pope? May 09 $1 $0 +1%
Will the Conservative Party win the Canadian election by 6-9%? Apr 17 $6 $0 -0%
Will TikTok be banned again before May? Apr 17 $7 $0 +0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec Apr 14 $7 $0 +0%
Trump signs national abortion ban? Apr 14 $7 $0 -0%
Will the Arizona Diamondbacks win the 2025 World Series? Apr 13 $7 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? Apr 11 $5 $0 -6%
Will Patrick Cantlay win The 2025 Masters? Apr 09 $4 $0 +0%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on April 30? Apr 08 $14 $0 +2%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the Western Conference? Apr 08 $3 $0 +11%
Will the Giants draft Shedeur Sanders? Apr 08 $10 +$1 +8%
Will Trump pardon Roger Ver in his first 100 days? Apr 05 $13 $0 +0%
Mehmet Oz confirmed as Medicare and Medicaid Administrator? Apr 03 $13 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 17¢ $5 3m
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 17¢ $5 3m
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 17¢ $10 3m
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 17¢ $6 3m
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $29 2h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $40 6h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $2 9h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $37 9h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $2 9h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 48¢ $45 14h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 41¢ $2 16h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 41¢ $18 16h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 41¢ $19 16h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $45 7d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $45 7d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 27¢ $13 8d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 27¢ $13 8d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $49 8d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $49 8d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $16 9d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 83¢ $16 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 16¢ $5 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 14¢ $3 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 14¢ $2 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 46¢ $22 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 46¢ $17 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 44¢ $30 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 44¢ $7 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 49¢ $3 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 49¢ $36 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 190 history records