trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? | No | 94¢ | 94¢ | $9 | $9 | −$0 (-1%) |
| Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? | No | 85¢ | 84¢ | $8 | $8 | −$0 (-1%) |
| Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? | No | 82¢ | 81¢ | $8 | $8 | −$0 (-1%) |
| Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? | No | 42¢ | 42¢ | $4 | $4 | −$0 (-1%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will United States win on 2026-06-12? | Jun 13 | $5 | +$5 | +105% |
| Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2025? | Dec 17 | $1,222 | +$5 | +0% |
| Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | Nov 04 | $20 | $0 | +1% |
| Ethereum all time high by October 31? | Oct 31 | $115 | $0 | +0% |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after October 2025 meeting? | Oct 30 | $20 | $0 | +1% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 1 | +105.1% | +85.6% | 100% | 100% | +85.6% |
| ≤30d | 1 | +105.1% | +85.6% | 100% | 100% | +85.6% |
| ≤90d | 1 | +105.1% | +85.6% | 100% | 100% | +85.6% |
| all | 5 | +21.5% | +9.9% | 100% | 20% | -8.8% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | +9.9% | 20% | -8.8% |
| 10% | -0.6% | 20% | -17.5% |
| 15% | -10.2% | 20% | -25.5% |
| 20% | -19.0% | 20% | -32.8% |