Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T21:31:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BD 0xbd51…e73d weather 182 markets active 1h ago coverage 27d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$313 (-6%) realized −$311 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate39%66W / 104L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day18.0pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$26now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$148
7 days−$236
14 days−$236
30 days−$399
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 56% −$162
politics 22% −$77
weather 12% −$77
tech 4% −$19
sports 3% −$61
finance 3% −$4
culture 0% −$3
world 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-21.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 -3.3% -12.5% 5% 5% -14.6%
≤30d 170 -13.3% -21.6% 39% 36% -16.6%
≤90d 170 -13.3% -21.6% 39% 36% -16.6%
all 170 -13.3% -21.6% 39% 36% -16.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.6% 36% -16.6%
10% -29.1% 30% -24.6%
15% -35.9% 25% -31.9%
20% -42.2% 22% -38.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$6 · ×0.6 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.38 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

27d coverage
Net worth$26
Realized−$311
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses66 / 104
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions12
Markets (closed)170 / 182
History coverage27d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day18.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 170 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Belgium 65¢ 66¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Uruguay 69¢ 66¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-4%)
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Yes 37¢ 39¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+5%)
Exact Score: Uruguay 0 - 1 Spain? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-3%)
Exact Score: Cabo Verde 1 - 0 Saudi Arabia? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-4%)
Exact Score: Cabo Verde 2 - 1 Saudi Arabia? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-6%)
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 3 Belgium? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-6%)
Exact Score: New Zealand 0 - 3 Belgium? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-14%)
Exact Score: Uruguay 0 - 0 Spain? Yes 10¢ 8¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-15%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 8¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-15%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+14%)
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-86%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026? Jun 26 $1,175 −$48 -4%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? Jun 26 $0 $0 -6%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 26? Jun 26 $1 $0 -30%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 25 and 30 million views on day 1 Jun 26 $20 $0 -3%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on Jun 25 $161 −$19 -12%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 25? Jun 25 $126 $0 -0%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on Jun 25 $19 $0 -2%
Will Anthropic IPO by September 30, 2026? Jun 25 $524 −$79 -15%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 24? Jun 24 $1 $0 +52%
Will Brad Lander win the NY-10 Democratic Primary by 10–20%? Jun 23 $499 −$14 -3%
Will Brad Lander win the NY-10 Democratic Primary by more than 30%? Jun 23 $435 −$44 -10%
Will Brad Lander win the NY-10 Democratic Primary by 20–30%? Jun 22 $127 −$1 -1%
Starmer out by June 26, 2026? Jun 22 $370 −$14 -4%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Jun 22 $371 −$6 -2%
Will Durable Goods Orders MoM be below -4% in May? Jun 21 $31 −$1 -2%
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? Jun 21 $208 −$3 -1%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof Jun 21 $3 $0 -10%
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? Jun 21 $47 −$6 -12%
Will Darializa Avila Chevalier win the NY-13 Democratic Primary by 5–1 Jun 20 $32 $0 -1%
Will Anthropic IPO by September 15, 2026? Jun 20 $34 $0 -0%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 18? Jun 18 $3 $0 -12%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 9°C on June 9? Jun 11 $1 $0 -33%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 9? Jun 09 $21 −$4 -17%
Will "Scary Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 48m and 52m? Jun 08 $2 −$2 -100%
Will "Scary Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be at least 52m? Jun 08 $4 +$2 +61%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 5? Jun 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from May 26 to June 2, Jun 07 $15 +$5 +30%
Will White House post 160-179 posts from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $3 +$2 +67%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 25°C or below on June 5? Jun 05 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 4? Jun 05 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 28°C on June 3? Jun 05 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C or higher on June 4? Jun 05 $1 −$1 -89%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 37°C on June 3? Jun 05 $1 +$1 +119%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 25°C on June 4? Jun 05 $1 +$2 +153%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 27°C on June 3? Jun 05 $4 +$5 +140%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 4? Jun 05 $7 +$10 +141%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C or below on June 3? Jun 03 $5 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 3? Jun 03 $2 $0 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on June 2? Jun 02 $2 $0 +12%
Will Donald Trump post 180-199 Truth Social posts from May 26 to June Jun 02 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Donald Trump post 160-179 Truth Social posts from May 26 to June Jun 02 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from May 26 to June Jun 02 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Zelenskyy post 80-99 posts from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $8 −$6 -77%
Will Zelenskyy post 60-79 posts from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $2 +$3 +124%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on June 2? Jun 02 $3 −$3 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 20°C or higher on June 2 Jun 02 $1 +$2 +157%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be 92°F or higher on June 1? Jun 02 $2 +$1 +39%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on June 1? Jun 02 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 76¢ $144 1h
Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 76¢ $146 1h
Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 76¢ $166 1h
Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 76¢ $167 1h
Exact Score: Cabo Verde 2 - 1 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 9¢ $2 3h
Exact Score: Cabo Verde 1 - 0 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 3h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Belgium 65¢ $5 3h
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Uruguay 69¢ $5 3h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 37¢ $2 3h
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 3 Belgium? BUY Yes 9¢ $2 3h
Exact Score: New Zealand 0 - 3 Belgium? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 3h
Exact Score: Uruguay 0 - 0 Spain? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 3h
Exact Score: Uruguay 0 - 1 Spain? BUY Yes 15¢ $2 3h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 5h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 5h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 26? SELL Up 8¢ $0 8h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 26? BUY Up 11¢ $1 8h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 25 and 30 million views on day 1 SELL No 49¢ $10 10h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 25 and 30 million views on day 1 BUY No 49¢ $10 10h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 25 and 30 million views on day 1 SELL No 49¢ $10 10h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 25 and 30 million views on day 1 BUY No 49¢ $10 10h
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on SELL Yes 34¢ $87 35h
Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026? SELL No 22¢ $261 35h
Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026? BUY No 23¢ $282 36h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 25? SELL Down 50¢ $2 37h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 25? BUY Down 51¢ $3 37h
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on SELL Yes 37¢ $18 37h
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on SELL No 44¢ $2 37h
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on BUY No 44¢ $2 37h
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on SELL No 44¢ $16 37h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $25.57 · official $25.57 (match) · 646 history records