Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T17:53:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
BD 0xbd51…475c other 12 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$28 (-2%) realized −$22 · open −$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -48% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -60% what you keep after slip
Net edge-60%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$142per market
Trades / day24.0pace
Kalshi-fit17%portable
Net worth$1,197now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 97% −$35
world 3% −$22
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-53.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -48.4% -53.3% 0% 0% -41.7%
≤30d 5 -48.4% -53.3% 0% 0% -41.7%
≤90d 5 -48.4% -53.3% 0% 0% -41.7%
all 5 -48.4% -53.3% 0% 0% -41.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover24.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -53.3% 0% -41.7%
10% ← realistic here -57.8% 0% -47.2%
15% -61.8% 0% -52.3%
20% -65.6% 0% -57.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -36% too few recent
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -48% · $-wt -36% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
— vs −$10 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$1,197
Realized−$22
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 5
Open positions7
Markets (closed)5 / 12
History coverage1d
Avg bet$142
Trades / day24.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit17%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Yes 66¢ 66¢ $847 $851 +$4 (+0%)
Exact Score: France 3 - 2 Senegal? Yes 3¢ 4¢ $96 $101 +$5 (+5%)
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $90 $96 +$6 (+6%)
Exact Score: France 2 - 2 Senegal? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $50 $52 +$2 (+3%)
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? Yes 14¢ 12¢ $50 $45 −$5 (-11%)
Exact Score: France 3 - 3 Senegal? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $25 $30 +$5 (+19%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 1¢ 1¢ $45 $23 −$22 (-48%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: France 1 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $50 −$7 -14%
Exact Score: France 1 - 2 Senegal? Jun 16 $51 −$13 -25%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $10 $0 -3%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $82 17m
Exact Score: France 1 - 1 Senegal? SELL Yes 10¢ $43 18m
Exact Score: France 1 - 2 Senegal? SELL Yes 3¢ $38 19m
Exact Score: France 3 - 2 Senegal? BUY Yes 4¢ $48 1h
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 8¢ $41 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 1¢ $25 1h
Exact Score: France 1 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 11¢ $50 4h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 66¢ $48 4h
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 14¢ $51 4h
Exact Score: France 1 - 2 Senegal? BUY Yes 4¢ $51 4h
Exact Score: France 2 - 2 Senegal? BUY Yes 5¢ $51 4h
Exact Score: France 3 - 3 Senegal? BUY Yes 1¢ $26 4h
Exact Score: France 3 - 2 Senegal? BUY Yes 3¢ $51 4h
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 8¢ $51 4h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 66¢ $283 4h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $995 10h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $19 23h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $10 23h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 4¢ $10 23h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $89 24h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 64¢ $20 24h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 58¢ $10 24h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 4¢ $10 24h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 3¢ $20 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,196.73 · official $1,196.73 (match) · 24 history records