Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T15:33:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BD 0xbd54…3970 other 136 markets active 2h ago coverage 118d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$46 (+0%) realized +$46 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate11%15W / 120L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown58%max
Avg bet$267per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$30now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 48% −$18
politics 24% −$10
sports 12% +$76
tech 6% −$2
crypto 4% −$1
world 3% −$1
economics 2% −$1
culture 1% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 15 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 93 -0.1% -9.6% 5% 0% -9.6%
all 135 -0.1% -9.6% 11% 5% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 5% -9.4%
10% -18.3% 4% -18.1%
15% -26.2% 4% -26.0%
20% -33.4% 3% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 49% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
53% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$1 · ×11.46 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.46 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

118d coverage
Net worth$30
Realized+$46
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)11%
Wins / losses15 / 120
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)135 / 136
History coverage118d
Avg bet$267
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown58%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 135 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the New Orleans Saints win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 19 $37 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 15 $26 $0 -0%
Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of Jun 14 $32 $0 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 14 $31 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 11 $43 $0 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $262 $0 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 10 $31 $0 -0%
Will Ed Davey be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026 Jun 08 $28 $0 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 30 $267 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 30 $779 −$1 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 27 $284 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? May 25 $259 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 24 $252 $0 -0%
Will Han Dong-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 24 $242 $0 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? May 22 $253 $0 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? May 21 $207 $0 -0%
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 19 $213 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 18 $278 $0 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 17 $262 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 16 $443 −$1 -0%
Will Hong Ihk-pyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 15 $532 −$1 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 15 $284 −$1 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? May 11 $264 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $286 $0 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? May 10 $221 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 10 $274 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in April? May 09 $44 $0 +0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 20 $295 $0 -0%
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 19 $205 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 18 $300 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 18 $448 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on Apr 17 $204 $0 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 17 $301 $0 -0%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? Apr 17 $296 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 17 $249 $0 -0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 16 $468 $0 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 16 $255 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $783 −$1 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $848 −$1 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $268 $0 -0%
Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 15 $290 $0 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $268 $0 -0%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $302 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $238 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 14 $69 $0 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on April Apr 14 $260 $0 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 14 $553 −$1 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 13 $225 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 13 $237 $0 -0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 12 $1,021 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $30 1h
Will the New Orleans Saints win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $37 32h
Will the New Orleans Saints win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $37 36h
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $26 5d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $26 5d
Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of SELL No 100¢ $32 5d
Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of BUY No 100¢ $32 6d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $31 6d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $31 6d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $43 8d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $43 9d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $38 9d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $38 10d
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $31 10d
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $31 11d
Will Ed Davey be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026 SELL No 100¢ $28 11d
Will Ed Davey be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026 BUY No 100¢ $28 14d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $38 20d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $38 21d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $247 21d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $247 23d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $284 23d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $284 24d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $229 25d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $229 25d
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $259 25d
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $259 26d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $252 27d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $252 27d
Will Han Dong-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election SELL No 100¢ $242 27d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $29.98 · official $29.98 (match) · 384 history records