Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T19:19:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0

score

BD 0xbd59…8995 crypto 20 markets active 2h ago coverage 165d

TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$273 (+8%) realized +$274 · open −$1

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip

Net edge-20%after slip

Net WR39%break-even

Win rate50%9W / 9L

Drawdown60%max

Avg bet$172per market

Trades / day0.2pace

Fees−$5est.

Kalshi-fit80%portable

Net worth$199now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$19

7 days−$305

14 days+$284

30 days+$286

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +39%

net ROI/market (all)-20.1%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	5	-54.6%	-58.9%	40%	20%	-36.4%
≤30d	9	+18.4%	+7.1%	56%	33%	-1.3%
≤90d	9	+18.4%	+7.1%	56%	33%	-1.3%
all	18	-11.6%	-20.1%	50%	39%	-2.1%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.2 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-20.1%	39%	-2.1%
10%	-27.7%	33%	-11.4%
15%	-34.7%	22%	-20.0%
20%	-41.1%	11%	-27.8%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 71% · top 2 87% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading

Fragile wins

22% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -12% · $-wt +8% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -42% → late +18% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$76 vs −$46 · ×1.64 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×1.64 per $1 lost it wins $1.64

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

165d coverage

Net worth$199

Realized+$274

Unrealized−$1

Win rate (resolved)50%

Wins / losses9 / 9

Est. fees paid−$5

Open positions2

Markets (closed)18 / 20

History coverage165d

Avg bet$172

Trades / day0.2

Drawdown60%

Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 18 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will New Zealand vs. Belgium end in a draw?	No	89¢	88¢	$100	$99	−$1 (-1%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26?	Yes	83¢	82¢	$100	$99	−$1 (-1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24?	Jun 25	$100	+$19	+18%
Will England win on 2026-06-23?	Jun 23	$101	−$100	-100%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw?	Jun 23	$88	−$88	-100%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw?	Jun 20	$182	−$182	-100%
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw?	Jun 20	$553	+$47	+8%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw?	Jun 17	$102	+$486	+474%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 14	$2,003	+$110	+6%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15?	Jun 14	$7	−$7	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 3, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET	Jun 01	$5	+$3	+59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 29, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET	Jan 30	$5	−$5	-98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 28, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET	Jan 28	$14	−$14	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 27, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET	Jan 28	$10	−$10	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 27, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET	Jan 27	$46	+$11	+24%
XRP Up or Down - January 26, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET	Jan 27	$10	+$3	+28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 26, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET	Jan 26	$5	+$2	+36%
XRP Up or Down - January 12, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET	Jan 12	$5	−$5	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 12, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET	Jan 12	$3	−$3	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 12, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET	Jan 12	$5	+$2	+38%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26?	BUY Yes	83¢	$101	1h
Will New Zealand vs. Belgium end in a draw?	BUY No	89¢	$100	1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	84¢	$100	47h
Will England win on 2026-06-23?	BUY Yes	83¢	$101	3d
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw?	BUY No	88¢	$88	3d
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw?	BUY No	91¢	$182	6d
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw?	BUY No	92¢	$93	6d
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw?	BUY No	92¢	$58	6d
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw?	BUY No	92¢	$113	6d
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw?	BUY No	92¢	$12	6d
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw?	BUY No	92¢	$23	6d
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw?	BUY No	92¢	$254	7d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw?	BUY Yes	17¢	$102	10d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	95¢	$501	12d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	95¢	$501	12d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	95¢	$501	12d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	95¢	$501	12d
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15?	BUY No	44¢	$7	25d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 3, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET	BUY Down	62¢	$5	143d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 29, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET	BUY Down	48¢	$5	147d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 28, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET	BUY Up	86¢	$14	149d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 27, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET	BUY Up	51¢	$10	149d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 27, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET	SELL Down	99¢	$24	150d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 27, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET	BUY Down	83¢	$20	150d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 27, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET	SELL Down	80¢	$21	150d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 27, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET	BUY Down	47¢	$12	150d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 27, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET	SELL Up	53¢	$12	150d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 27, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET	BUY Up	56¢	$13	150d
XRP Up or Down - January 26, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET	BUY Up	78¢	$10	151d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 26, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET	SELL Up	96¢	$7	151d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $198.84 · official $198.84 (match) · 44 history records