Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T13:50:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
BD 0xbd5a…166f sports 69 markets active 2h ago coverage 115d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$210 (+8%) realized +$236 · open −$26
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate46%30W / 35L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$37per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$290now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$25
7 days+$141
14 days+$141
30 days+$171
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 58% +$107
sports 38% +$51
world 4% +$41
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-15.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +31.2% +18.7% 67% 67% +18.5%
≤30d 14 +25.6% +13.7% 64% 64% +16.5%
≤90d 18 +20.1% +8.6% 61% 61% +16.7%
all 65 -7.0% -15.8% 46% 45% -0.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.8% 45% -0.3%
10% -23.9% 45% -9.9%
15% -31.2% 43% -18.6%
20% -38.0% 40% -26.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +29% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt +10% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$41 vs −$29 · ×1.43 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.23 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

115d coverage
Net worth$290
Realized+$236
Unrealized−$26
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses30 / 35
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions4
Markets (closed)65 / 69
History coverage115d
Avg bet$37
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 65 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $80 $88 +$8 (+11%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Yes 61¢ 60¢ $89 $88 −$1 (-1%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 7¢ $98 $67 −$31 (-32%)
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Brazil 54¢ 52¢ $49 $47 −$2 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 34 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 19 $51 +$39 +76%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $64 −$64 -99%
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 17 $51 +$84 +165%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $50 +$32 +65%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 15 $39 −$38 -98%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 14 $51 −$50 -99%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $51 +$51 +101%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $51 +$30 +60%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $50 +$57 +114%
Spread: Mexico (-2.5) Jun 12 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $50 +$21 +42%
Roland Garros ATP: Adolfo Vallejo vs Moise Kouame May 28 $10 +$20 +197%
Roland Garros ATP: Jan-Lennard Struff vs Jaime Faria May 28 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Bayern Munich win DFB-Pokal? May 28 $50 +$20 +40%
Will RB Leipzig win on 2026-04-04? Apr 04 $63 +$60 +94%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-04? Apr 04 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-03-27? Mar 29 $30 +$32 +108%
Will Eintracht Frankfurt win on 2026-03-22? Mar 22 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Borussia Mönchengladbach win on 2026-03-21? Mar 21 $20 −$20 -100%
Will RB Leipzig win on 2026-03-20? Mar 21 $40 +$40 +100%
Spread: FC Barcelona (-1.5) Mar 18 $25 +$37 +150%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-03-18? Mar 18 $175 +$102 +59%
Spread: FC Bayern München (-1.5) Mar 17 $50 −$50 -100%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-03-18? Mar 16 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-03-12? Mar 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2026-03-12? Mar 12 $50 +$60 +121%
Spread: Crystal Palace FC (-1.5) Mar 12 $50 −$50 -100%
Spread: Arsenal FC (-1.5) Mar 11 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-03-11? Mar 11 $50 −$50 -100%
Set Handicap: Keys (-1.5) vs Kartal (+1.5) Mar 09 $10 −$10 -100%
BNP Paribas Open: Madison Keys vs Sonay Kartal Mar 09 $30 −$30 -100%
SS Lazio vs. US Sassuolo Calcio: O/U 2.5 Mar 09 $20 +$41 +203%
Will Eintracht Frankfurt win on 2026-03-08? Mar 08 $20 −$20 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-03-10? Mar 08 $24 −$24 -100%
BNP Paribas Open: Maria Sakkari vs Lilli Tagger Mar 08 $4 +$2 +52%
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-03-07? Mar 08 $75 +$61 +82%
Will Levante UD vs. Girona FC end in a draw? Mar 07 $29 +$71 +244%
Spread: FC Bayern München (-2.5) Mar 07 $75 +$99 +132%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-03-07? Mar 07 $40 +$65 +163%
BNP Paribas Open: Anastasia Potapova vs Jasmine Paolini Mar 06 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen win on 2026-01-13? Mar 05 $50 +$82 +163%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-03-03? Mar 03 $75 −$75 -100%
Will FC Augsburg win on 2026-02-27? Feb 28 $54 +$69 +127%
Dubai Tennis Championships: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Daniil Medvedev Feb 27 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-02-27? Feb 27 $50 −$50 -100%
Spread: AZ (-1.5) Feb 27 $30 +$25 +82%
Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen win on 2026-02-28? Feb 26 $40 −$40 -100%
Spread: Bayer 04 Leverkusen (-1.5) Feb 26 $15 −$15 -100%
Spread: KKS Lech Poznań (-2.5) Feb 26 $25 −$25 -100%
Spread: KKS Lech Poznań (-1.5) Feb 26 $20 −$20 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Brazil 54¢ $50 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $90 1h
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY Canada 56¢ $51 16h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $64 47h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $101 3d
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 60¢ $50 3d
Spread: Norway (-2.5) BUY Norway 37¢ $51 3d
Spread: Spain (-3.5) BUY Spain 36¢ $39 4d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 52¢ $51 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 100¢ $106 6d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 46¢ $50 6d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 62¢ $51 6d
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Germany 49¢ $51 7d
Spread: Mexico (-2.5) BUY Mexico 19¢ $20 7d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $50 7d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $82 7d
Roland Garros ATP: Adolfo Vallejo vs Moise Kouame BUY Moise Kouame 33¢ $10 22d
Roland Garros ATP: Jan-Lennard Struff vs Jaime Faria BUY Jan-Lennard Struff 40¢ $10 22d
Will Bayern Munich win DFB-Pokal? BUY Yes 71¢ $50 60d
Will RB Leipzig win on 2026-04-04? SELL Yes 97¢ $123 75d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-04? BUY Yes 36¢ $20 75d
Will RB Leipzig win on 2026-04-04? BUY Yes 50¢ $63 77d
Will Germany win on 2026-03-27? BUY Yes 48¢ $30 83d
Will Eintracht Frankfurt win on 2026-03-22? BUY Yes 30¢ $30 89d
Will Borussia Mönchengladbach win on 2026-03-21? BUY Yes 31¢ $20 90d
Will RB Leipzig win on 2026-03-20? BUY Yes 50¢ $40 91d
Spread: FC Barcelona (-1.5) SELL FC Barcelona 100¢ $62 92d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-03-18? SELL Yes 100¢ $277 92d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-03-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $75 93d
Spread: FC Barcelona (-1.5) BUY FC Barcelona 40¢ $25 93d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $290.16 · official $290.16 (match) · 117 history records