Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:16:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
BD 0xbd5d…57b4 sports 23 markets active 1h ago coverage 5d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$7 (+1%) realized +$7 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +13% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate56%9W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day4.3pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$100now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 85% +$77
other 13% −$6
tech 2% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)+2.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 +13.1% +2.3% 56% 56% +5.2%
≤30d 16 +13.1% +2.3% 56% 56% +5.2%
≤90d 16 +13.1% +2.3% 56% 56% +5.2%
all 16 +13.1% +2.3% 56% 56% +5.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +2.3% 56% +5.2%
10% -7.5% 56% -4.9%
15% -16.4% 50% -14.1%
20% -24.6% 50% -22.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 42% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +16% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +13% · $-wt +16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -35% → late +62% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$24 vs −$22 · ×1.09 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.4 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$100
Realized+$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses9 / 7
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions4
Markets (closed)16 / 23
History coverage5d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day4.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 16 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
England vs. Croatia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Under 58¢ 58¢ $25 $25 +$0 (+1%)
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Under 64¢ 64¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Under 63¢ 62¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Under 52¢ 52¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $25 +$17 +67%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $25 +$21 +83%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) AND Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 17 $20 +$58 +282%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $25 +$34 +134%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $25 −$25 -98%
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) Jun 16 $25 +$8 +32%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $25 +$24 +94%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $25 −$25 -100%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $25 −$25 -99%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $25 +$23 +90%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $25 −$25 -99%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $25 +$19 +73%
Switzerland leading at halftime? Jun 13 $25 +$14 +55%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.4T? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -96%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $25 −$25 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $99.64 · official $99.64 (match) · 33 history records