Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T20:25:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
BD 0xbd60…423a sports 82 markets active 1h ago coverage 112d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialistFresh edge
Total PnL +$331 (+1%) realized +$313 · open +$18
Gross ROI / mkt +28% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +16% what you keep after slip
Net edge+16%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate46%33W / 39L
Whale WR39%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$432per market
Trades / day1.6pace
Fees−$280est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$328now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$345
7 days+$241
14 days+$632
30 days+$1,166
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 58% +$1,443
world 33% −$630
other 8% −$931
crypto 1% +$70
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)+15.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 34 +63.7% +48.1% 50% 50% -8.0%
≤30d 42 +56.2% +41.3% 50% 50% -3.7%
≤90d 68 +31.1% +18.6% 47% 47% -8.0%
all 72 +27.6% +15.5% 46% 44% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +15.5% 44% -8.8%
10% +4.4% 42% -17.5%
15% -5.7% 39% -25.5%
20% -14.9% 38% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +28% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 39% (≥$673) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -9% → late +64% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$310 vs −$264 · ×1.17 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.99 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

112d coverage
Net worth$328
Realized+$313
Unrealized+$18
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses33 / 39
Whale WR (big bets)39%
Est. fees paid−$280
Open positions7
Markets (closed)72 / 82
History coverage112d
Avg bet$432
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 72 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 20¢ $50 $73 +$23 (+46%)
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? No 38¢ 42¢ $50 $55 +$5 (+11%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $50 $51 +$1 (+2%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $50 $50 +$0 (+0%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will Vinicius Junior be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $50 $39 −$11 (-22%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 Jun 20 $102 −$100 -98%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $102 −$100 -98%
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz Jun 20 $102 +$116 +114%
Spread: United States (-2.5) Jun 19 $1,533 +$909 +59%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $708 −$700 -99%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $304 −$300 -99%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Switzerland O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $171 −$169 -99%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $203 −$200 -99%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $1,881 +$1,072 +57%
Harry Kane: 1+ goals Jun 17 $34 +$41 +124%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 17 $811 −$800 -99%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $1,844 +$807 +44%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $507 −$500 -99%
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals Jun 16 $51 +$51 +101%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $1,009 −$1,000 -99%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $255 −$250 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $962 −$206 -21%
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $81 −$80 -99%
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 1 Egypt? Jun 15 $51 +$126 +247%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $100 +$100 +100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $203 +$182 +90%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $103 +$897 +871%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Neither team to score first? Jun 15 $43 +$526 +1233%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $203 +$241 +119%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 15 $253 +$193 +76%
Fight to Go the Distance? Jun 15 $254 −$250 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $102 +$107 +105%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 15 $745 −$115 -15%
Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by June 30? Jun 14 $673 −$450 -67%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $203 −$200 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 14 $52 +$55 +106%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $403 −$19 -5%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $194 +$111 +57%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $203 +$148 +73%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 13 $700 +$417 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 12 $52 +$48 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 12 $52 −$3 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 12 $129 +$102 +79%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 09 $1,941 −$144 -7%
Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals? Jun 08 $51 −$31 -61%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 31 $645 +$576 +89%
Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-1.5) May 30 $77 −$42 -55%
Rockets vs. Lakers Apr 19 $344 −$340 -99%
Hawks vs. Knicks Apr 19 $25 −$14 -56%
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Apr 18 $216 +$139 +64%
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 18, 2026? Apr 16 $160 +$55 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Apr 12 $133 −$133 -100%
Will Israel conduct military action in Greater Beirut on April 9, 2026 Apr 12 $1,569 −$1,405 -90%
Warriors vs. Kings Apr 11 $100 −$100 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Rockets Apr 11 $76 −$76 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? BUY No 38¢ $51 47m
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 51¢ $51 1h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $10 1h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $51 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $51 1h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $51 1h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 30¢ $51 1h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY No 39¢ $102 3h
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY 35¢ $357 3h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz SELL Taylor Fritz 100¢ $217 4h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz BUY Taylor Fritz 46¢ $102 4h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 AND Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY 22¢ $256 21h
Spread: United States (-2.5) BUY Australia 62¢ $572 23h
Spread: United States (-2.5) BUY Australia 62¢ $960 23h
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score AND Will Türkiye win BUY 26¢ $511 34h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 64¢ $708 47h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 55¢ $304 47h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Switzerland O/U 0.5 BUY Under 56¢ $171 47h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 0.5 BUY Under 57¢ $203 2d
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 63¢ $1,881 2d
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY Croatia 55¢ $304 2d
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY Croatia 54¢ $507 2d
Harry Kane: 1+ goals BUY Yes 44¢ $34 3d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 69¢ $1,844 3d
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 51¢ $507 3d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 72¢ $1,009 3d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 38¢ $255 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 44¢ $757 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 46¢ $406 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $404 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $327.75 · official $677.86 · 212 history records