trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra | Jun 12 | $45 | −$1 | -1% |
| US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? | Jun 12 | $2 | $0 | +0% |
| Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? | Jun 11 | $44 | $0 | +1% |
| US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? | Jun 09 | $44 | $0 | +1% |
| US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? | Jun 09 | $39 | +$1 | +2% |
| Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? | Jun 09 | $43 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Elon Musk post 1160-1199 tweets in April 2026? | Apr 21 | $103 | −$1 | -1% |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? | Apr 20 | $21 | +$5 | +21% |
| Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in second place in the first roun | Apr 19 | $100 | −$1 | -1% |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? | Apr 17 | $31 | $0 | -2% |
| Will Felix Auger-Aliassime win Wimbledon 2025? | Apr 03 | $0 | $0 | -100% |
| Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? | Apr 03 | $488 | +$1 | +0% |
| Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Apr 02 | $226 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Apr 01 | $29 | +$8 | +28% |
| Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Apr 01 | $228 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Xi Jinping meet with Cheng Li-wun by June 30? | Mar 31 | $113 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Jay-Z be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island? | Mar 31 | $29 | −$5 | -17% |
| Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Mar 30 | $223 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 National League Championship Seri | Mar 30 | $223 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? | Dec 16 | $1 | $0 | -8% |
| Will Ethereum reach $4000 in May? | Jun 02 | $2 | $0 | +3% |
| Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the 2025 NBA Finals? | Apr 28 | $2 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Gage (Player 974) win the Beast Games? | Mar 04 | $2 | −$2 | -100% |
| Will Kanye tweet 200-399 times February 20-28? | Feb 23 | $2 | $0 | -15% |
| Georgescu banned from Romania election? | Feb 17 | $3 | $0 | -14% |
| Thunder vs. Cavaliers | Jan 09 | $6 | −$6 | -100% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 6 | +0.3% | -9.2% | 50% | 0% | -9.2% |
| ≤30d | 6 | +0.3% | -9.2% | 50% | 0% | -9.2% |
| ≤90d | 19 | -3.6% | -12.8% | 32% | 11% | -9.2% |
| all | 26 | -11.6% | -20.0% | 31% | 8% | -9.6% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -20.0% | 8% | -9.6% |
| 10% | -27.6% | 4% | -18.3% |
| 15% | -34.6% | 0% | -26.2% |
| 20% | -41.0% | 0% | -33.4% |