Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:18:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BD 0xbd62…03fc crypto 13 markets active 7d ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$24 (-46%) realized −$24 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -40% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -50% what you keep after slip
Net edge-50%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate38%5W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day18.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$25
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-45.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -13.2% -21.5% 60% 60% -34.4%
≤30d 13 -39.7% -45.4% 38% 38% -53.9%
≤90d 13 -39.7% -45.4% 38% 38% -53.9%
all 13 -39.7% -45.4% 38% 38% -53.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -45.4% 38% -53.9%
10% -50.7% 38% -58.3%
15% -55.4% 23% -62.4%
20% -59.8% 8% -66.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 54% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -49% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -40% · $-wt -49% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -65% → late -18% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$4 · ×0.26 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.17 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$24
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses5 / 8
Open positions0
Markets (closed)13 / 13
History coverage1d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day18.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 13 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 10 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 10 $2 +$1 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 10 $2 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 10 $3 +$1 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 10 $5 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 10 $10 −$2 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 28 history records