Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T10:40:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
BD 0xbd62…9ac7 world 42 markets active 4h ago coverage 295d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$3 (+0%) realized +$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate26%11W / 31L
Drawdown15%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$2
14 days+$2
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 34% +$1
other 22% $0
politics 20% +$1
economics 5% $0
sports 5% $0
culture 4% $0
crypto 4% $0
tech 3% $0
weather 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-8.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +0.7% -8.9% 40% 0% -9.1%
≤30d 10 +0.7% -8.9% 40% 0% -9.1%
≤90d 10 +0.7% -8.9% 40% 0% -9.1%
all 42 +0.7% -8.9% 26% 2% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.9% 2% -9.3%
10% -17.6% 0% -18.0%
15% -25.6% 0% -25.9%
20% -32.9% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×3.17 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.36 per $1 lost it wins $4.36
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

295d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses11 / 31
Open positions0
Markets (closed)42 / 42
History coverage295d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown15%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 42 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 19 $75 +$1 +1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 18 $35 $0 +1%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $4 $0 +10%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $38 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 17 $42 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 16 $26 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 15 $37 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $38 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $7 $0 -5%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $19 $0 +0%
Will the Chicago Bears win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 19 $13 $0 +0%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 19 $23 $0 -0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 19 $2 $0 +3%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Russia? Sep 19 $60 $0 +0%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 18 $24 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 18 $27 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon Elon Musk in 2025? Sep 18 $24 $0 +0%
Will Eric Adams win second place in the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Sep 17 $36 $0 +1%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Sep 15 $12 $0 +0%
Will Keri Russell win the Emmy for Outstanding Lead Actress in a Drama Sep 15 $5 $0 +0%
Will Xi Jinping be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Sep 14 $9 $0 +0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Qatar / UAE? Sep 14 $36 $0 +1%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 12 $70 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Se Sep 11 $35 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2025 World Series? Sep 10 $35 $0 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Sep 09 $36 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Hunter Biden in 2025? Sep 09 $5 $0 +5%
Will Chow Hang‑tung win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 08 $36 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Edward Snowden in 2025? Sep 08 $32 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 10k-25k Gold Cards in 2025? Sep 08 $3 $0 +13%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 02 $35 $0 +0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 02 $35 $0 +0%
Will Polymarket US go live in 2025? Sep 02 $30 $0 +0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 02 $6 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 02 $34 $0 +0%
Will Conor McGregor win the Irish Presidential Election? Sep 02 $35 $0 -0%
Will Trump meet with Yoon Suk Yeol in 2025? Aug 29 $35 $0 +0%
Will 8+ Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Aug 29 $35 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $5200 in August? Aug 28 $35 $0 +0%
Will Trump announce Judy Shelton as next Fed Chair in 2025? Aug 28 $27 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 by December 31? Aug 28 $9 $0 +0%
Will Vitinha win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Aug 28 $35 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 82¢ $36 3h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 82¢ $36 5h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 83¢ $40 5h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 81¢ $39 7h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $31 15h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $4 15h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY No 72¢ $29 20h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY No 72¢ $6 20h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $4 24h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $4 26h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $38 27h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $38 29h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 10¢ $8 36h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 10¢ $8 38h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $26 3d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 90¢ $26 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $24 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $11 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $25 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $9 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 83¢ $12 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 83¢ $22 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 83¢ $27 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 83¢ $7 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $2 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 94¢ $38 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 94¢ $38 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $7 6d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $4 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 142 history records