Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T22:08:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BD 0xbd64…cbee sports 270 markets active 2h ago coverage 218d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,523 (-6%) realized −$1,523 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate64%172W / 98L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$96per market
Trades / day3.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$29
7 days−$94
14 days−$94
30 days−$94
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 87% −$1,538
other 12% +$208
finance 1% +$10
tech 0% +$8
crypto 0% −$50
world 0% +$29
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-19.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -38.9% -44.7% 33% 33% -27.0%
≤30d 9 -38.9% -44.7% 33% 33% -27.0%
≤90d 9 -38.9% -44.7% 33% 33% -27.0%
all 270 -10.7% -19.2% 64% 49% -14.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.2% 49% -14.2%
10% -26.9% 33% -22.4%
15% -34.0% 20% -29.9%
20% -40.5% 13% -36.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -19% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$31 vs −$70 · ×0.45 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

218d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,523
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses172 / 98
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)270 / 270
History coverage218d
Avg bet$96
Trades / day3.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 270 Trades
no open positions (80 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 0 IR Iran? Jun 21 $20 +$29 +141%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $62 −$60 -97%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 2 Colombia? Jun 18 $77 −$75 -98%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 1 Colombia? Jun 18 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $51 −$50 -99%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $102 +$59 +58%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $124 +$62 +50%
Heat vs. Pistons Jan 02 $108 −$108 -100%
Bruins vs. Oilers Jan 02 $95 +$5 +5%
Pelicans vs. Bulls Jan 01 $68 +$32 +47%
Nuggets vs. Raptors Jan 01 $357 −$191 -54%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jan 01 $110 −$110 -100%
DePaul Blue Demons vs. Villanova Wildcats Jan 01 $303 +$42 +14%
Nicholls Colonels vs. Texas-Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros Jan 01 $95 +$14 +15%
Georgia State Panthers vs. Marshall Thundering Herd Dec 31 $176 +$53 +30%
Magic vs. Pacers Dec 31 $131 −$38 -29%
Iowa vs. Vanderbilt Dec 31 $338 +$33 +10%
Will Al Hilal Saudi Club win on 2025-12-31? Dec 31 $78 +$22 +28%
Pistons vs. Lakers Dec 31 $55 +$44 +80%
Celtics vs. Jazz Dec 31 $82 +$18 +22%
Tennessee State Tigers vs. Tennessee Tech Golden Eagles Dec 31 $89 +$11 +12%
Knicks vs. Pelicans Dec 30 $74 +$26 +35%
Pacers vs. Rockets Dec 30 $85 +$15 +18%
Cavaliers vs. Spurs Dec 29 $100 −$100 -100%
Nuggets vs. Heat Dec 29 $108 −$108 -100%
Pistons vs. Jazz Dec 27 $470 −$470 -100%
Suns vs. Pelicans Dec 27 $128 +$72 +56%
76ers vs. Bulls Dec 27 $203 −$203 -100%
Hornets vs. Magic Dec 27 $69 +$31 +45%
Celtics vs. Pacers Dec 27 $149 +$51 +34%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2025-12-26? Dec 26 $72 +$28 +39%
Will Zambia vs. Comoros end in a draw? Dec 26 $51 +$47 +90%
Rockets vs. Lakers Dec 26 $53 +$47 +89%
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Dec 26 $128 +$122 +95%
Spurs vs. Thunder Dec 26 $53 +$147 +277%
Will Cameroon win on 2025-12-24? Dec 24 $101 +$28 +28%
Pistons vs. Kings Dec 24 $78 +$22 +28%
Nuggets vs. Mavericks Dec 23 $187 −$187 -100%
Rockets vs. Clippers Dec 23 $73 −$73 -100%
Pistons vs. Trail Blazers Dec 23 $69 +$31 +45%
Abilene Christian Wildcats vs. Texas Southern Tigers Dec 23 $55 +$45 +82%
Jazz vs. Nuggets Dec 23 $86 +$14 +16%
Seattle Redhawks vs. UTSA Roadrunners Dec 22 $78 +$22 +28%
Will RCD Espanyol de Barcelona win on 2025-12-22? Dec 22 $19 +$9 +50%
Will Fulham FC win on 2025-12-22? Dec 22 $75 +$25 +33%
Will Egypt vs. Zimbabwe end in a draw? Dec 22 $32 −$30 -94%
San Diego Toreros vs. California-San Diego Tritons Dec 20 $195 +$33 +17%
Washington Huskies vs. Seattle Redhawks Dec 20 $75 −$75 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 0 IR Iran? SELL Yes 46¢ $49 1h
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 0 IR Iran? BUY Yes 18¢ $20 2h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 52¢ $30 3d
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes $10 3d
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes $51 3d
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 2 Colombia? BUY Yes 27¢ $26 3d
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 2 Colombia? BUY Yes 28¢ $51 3d
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 1 Colombia? BUY Yes 20¢ $20 3d
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes $10 3d
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 65¢ $51 3d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 79¢ $160 4d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 49¢ $102 4d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 82¢ $23 4d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 63¢ $101 4d
Heat vs. Pistons BUY Pistons 65¢ $54 170d
Heat vs. Pistons BUY Pistons 65¢ $46 170d
Heat vs. Pistons BUY Pistons 65¢ $8 170d
Bruins vs. Oilers BUY Bruins 95¢ $95 171d
Pelicans vs. Bulls SELL Bulls 100¢ $100 171d
Nuggets vs. Raptors BUY Raptors 70¢ $15 171d
Nuggets vs. Raptors BUY Raptors 70¢ $22 171d
Nuggets vs. Raptors BUY Raptors 70¢ $81 171d
Nuggets vs. Raptors BUY Raptors 65¢ $19 171d
Nuggets vs. Raptors BUY Raptors 65¢ $52 171d
Nuggets vs. Raptors SELL Nuggets 35¢ $70 171d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 63¢ $63 171d
Nuggets vs. Raptors BUY Nuggets 49¢ $49 171d
Nuggets vs. Raptors BUY Nuggets 48¢ $48 171d
DePaul Blue Demons vs. Villanova Wildcats SELL Villanova Wildcats 100¢ $279 171d
DePaul Blue Demons vs. Villanova Wildcats BUY Villanova Wildcats 62¢ $62 171d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 804 history records