Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:11:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
BD 0xbd65…7cae sports 8 markets active 0h ago coverage 59d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$26 (-8%) realized −$27 · open +$1
Gross ROI / mkt -35% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -41% what you keep after slip
Net edge-41%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate43%3W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$41per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$30now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$57
7 days+$69
14 days+$69
30 days+$61
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$26
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-41.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -6.5% -15.4% 67% 67% +24.4%
≤30d 5 -8.8% -17.5% 60% 60% +17.0%
≤90d 7 -34.9% -41.1% 43% 43% -18.0%
all 7 -34.9% -41.1% 43% 43% -18.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -41.1% 43% -18.0%
10% -46.7% 29% -25.9%
15% -51.9% 29% -33.0%
20% -56.6% 29% -39.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 73% · top 2 91% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -35% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$26 vs −$27 · ×0.98 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

59d coverage
Net worth$30
Realized−$27
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses3 / 4
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions1
Markets (closed)7 / 8
History coverage59d
Avg bet$41
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Dota 2: OG vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia Closed Qualifier Playoffs InterActive Philippines 28¢ 30¢ $28 $30 +$1 (+5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China Jun 18 $87 +$57 +66%
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers (BO3) - The International C Jun 18 $96 +$14 +14%
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master (BO3) - The International China Cl Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Aurora (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 05 $15 −$15 -100%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Tundra Esports (BO3) - BLAST Slam Last Chance Qualif May 30 $9 +$7 +75%
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Vici Gaming (BO5) - ACL X ESL Challenger Ch May 03 $15 −$15 -100%
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Team Spirit (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group Stage Apr 23 $74 −$74 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: OG vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - The International Southe BUY InterActive Philippines 28¢ $22 2m
Dota 2: OG vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - The International Southe BUY InterActive Philippines 28¢ $6 2m
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China SELL Yakult Brothers 79¢ $78 47h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China BUY Yakult Brothers 30¢ $10 47h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China BUY Yakult Brothers 30¢ $20 47h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China SELL Vici Gaming 67¢ $66 47h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China BUY Vici Gaming 57¢ $43 2d
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China BUY Vici Gaming 57¢ $14 2d
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers (BO3) - The International C BUY Team Resilience 80¢ $48 2d
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers (BO3) - The International C SELL Team Resilience 63¢ $50 2d
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers (BO3) - The International C BUY Team Resilience 60¢ $17 2d
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers (BO3) - The International C BUY Team Resilience 60¢ $1 2d
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers (BO3) - The International C BUY Team Resilience 60¢ $15 2d
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers (BO3) - The International C BUY Team Resilience 60¢ $15 2d
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master (BO3) - The International China Cl BUY Game Master 19¢ $2 3d
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Aurora (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs BUY Team Falcons 60¢ $15 14d
Dota 2: Aurora vs Tundra Esports (BO3) - BLAST Slam Last Chance Qualif BUY Aurora 57¢ $9 20d
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Vici Gaming (BO5) - ACL X ESL Challenger Ch BUY Team Resilience 15¢ $6 47d
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Vici Gaming (BO5) - ACL X ESL Challenger Ch BUY Team Resilience 15¢ $3 47d
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Vici Gaming (BO5) - ACL X ESL Challenger Ch BUY Team Resilience 15¢ $6 47d
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Team Spirit (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group Stage BUY Xtreme Gaming 53¢ $21 58d
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Team Spirit (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group Stage BUY Xtreme Gaming 53¢ $53 58d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $29.50 · official $29.50 (match) · 25 history records