Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:47:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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BD 0xbd6a…4614 weather 1509 markets active 5h ago coverage 72d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 71d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$322 (-5%) realized −$317 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate40%610W / 897L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day42.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$11now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$22
7 days−$94
14 days−$118
30 days−$188
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% −$461
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-15.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 108 -9.6% -18.2% 41% 41% -21.2%
≤30d 578 -4.1% -13.3% 45% 45% -15.5%
≤90d 1507 -6.4% -15.3% 40% 38% -16.4%
all 1507 -6.4% -15.3% 40% 38% -16.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover42.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.3% 38% -16.4%
10% ← realistic here -23.4% 35% -24.4%
15% -30.8% 31% -31.7%
20% -37.6% 28% -38.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$3 · ×1.24 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

72d coverage
Net worth$11
Realized−$317
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses610 / 897
Open positions2
Markets (closed)1507 / 1509
History coverage72d ⚠
Avg bet$4
Trades / day42.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 1507 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 17? Yes 63¢ 61¢ $11 $11 −$0 (-4%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 17? Yes 23¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 30°C on June 17? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 29°C on June 17? Jun 17 $12 +$4 +32%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 16? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 16? Jun 17 $12 −$12 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 16? Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on June 16? Jun 17 $13 −$12 -88%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June Jun 16 $11 −$11 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June Jun 16 $3 +$11 +362%
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $3 +$14 +476%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on June 16? Jun 16 $10 +$6 +57%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on June 16? Jun 16 $9 +$10 +107%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 16? Jun 16 $9 +$8 +87%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on June 15? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 15? Jun 16 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 15? Jun 16 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on June 15? Jun 15 $6 +$12 +192%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 15? Jun 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 15? Jun 15 $9 −$9 -98%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 15? Jun 15 $6 +$11 +179%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 15? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 35°C on June 14? Jun 15 $14 −$14 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on June 14? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 18°C on June 14? Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on June 15? Jun 15 $7 −$7 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on June 15? Jun 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C or below on June 15? Jun 15 $7 +$10 +156%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $9 −$8 -94%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 15? Jun 15 $9 +$11 +116%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on June 15? Jun 15 $12 +$5 +38%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on June 15? Jun 15 $4 −$3 -87%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 15? Jun 15 $7 +$9 +129%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 13? Jun 14 $12 −$12 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 14? Jun 14 $8 +$11 +134%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 14? Jun 14 $8 −$7 -93%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 19°C on June 14? Jun 14 $8 +$10 +126%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 31°C on June 14? Jun 14 $12 +$6 +46%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on June 14? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -94%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 14? Jun 14 $3 +$13 +441%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -94%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 14? Jun 14 $12 −$12 -96%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 13? Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 13? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 13? Jun 14 $5 +$13 +264%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 78-79°F on June 13? Jun 13 $8 +$10 +127%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 80-81°F on June 13? Jun 13 $9 −$9 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June Jun 13 $10 +$7 +66%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 13? Jun 13 $12 +$4 +34%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 13? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -92%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 17? BUY Yes 63¢ $11 4h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 17? BUY Yes 23¢ $4 4h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 30°C on June 17? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 7h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 29°C on June 17? SELL Yes 99¢ $16 7h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 30°C on June 17? BUY Yes 20¢ $3 11h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 29°C on June 17? BUY Yes 74¢ $12 11h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June SELL Yes 1¢ $0 17h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June SELL Yes 98¢ $7 17h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June SELL Yes 98¢ $8 17h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June BUY Yes 73¢ $11 22h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June BUY Yes 20¢ $3 22h
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 16? SELL Yes 98¢ $17 25h
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 16? BUY Yes 16¢ $3 27h
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 16? BUY Yes 67¢ $12 27h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on June 16? SELL Yes 98¢ $8 30h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on June 16? SELL Yes 98¢ $8 30h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on June 16? SELL Yes 98¢ $4 32h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on June 16? SELL Yes 98¢ $8 32h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on June 16? SELL Yes 98¢ $8 32h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on June 16? BUY Yes 9¢ $2 33h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on June 16? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 33h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on June 16? BUY Yes 17¢ $3 33h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on June 16? SELL Yes 5¢ $1 33h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on June 16? BUY Yes 46¢ $9 34h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on June 16? BUY Yes 41¢ $8 34h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 16? SELL Yes 98¢ $18 35h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on June 16? BUY Yes 61¢ $10 37h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 16? BUY Yes 30¢ $5 37h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 16? BUY Yes 38¢ $7 38h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 16? BUY Yes 51¢ $9 38h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10.84 · official $10.84 (match) · 3500 history records