Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T20:37:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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BD 0xbd6c…b6fa crypto 1672 markets active 0h ago coverage 76d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 76d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$99 (-1%) realized −$99 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate84%1404W / 268L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day24.0pace
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$10
7 days−$10
14 days−$10
30 days−$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 95% −$175
weather 3% +$26
other 2% −$16
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-11.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -12.7% -21.1% 50% 12% -13.8%
≤30d 16 -12.7% -21.1% 50% 12% -13.8%
≤90d 1672 -1.9% -11.2% 84% 41% -11.5%
all 1672 -1.9% -11.2% 84% 41% -11.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover24.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.2% 41% -11.5%
10% ← realistic here -19.7% 15% -20.0%
15% -27.5% 8% -27.7%
20% -34.6% 2% -34.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
47% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$4 · ×0.16 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

76d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$99
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)84%
Wins / losses1404 / 268
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1672 / 1672
History coverage76d ⚠
Avg bet$4
Trades / day24.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1672 Trades
no open positions (10 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 15 $7 −$1 -22%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +27%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 15 $11 −$2 -23%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +41%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 15 $6 $0 -2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 15 $9 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 15 $9 −$3 -30%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 15 $22 −$3 -14%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 15 $18 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 15 $24 −$3 -14%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 15 $19 +$1 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 15 $16 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 15 $13 +$1 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 15 $9 −$2 -19%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 -10%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 4, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET May 04 $11 −$10 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 4, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET May 04 $11 −$10 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 4, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET May 04 $11 −$10 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 4, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET May 04 $10 −$10 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 4, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET May 04 $11 −$10 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 4, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET May 04 $11 −$10 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 4, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET May 04 $11 −$10 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 19°C on April 30? Apr 30 $8 +$2 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 20°C on April 30? Apr 30 $44 +$7 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 17°C on April 30? Apr 30 $37 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 25°C on April 29? Apr 30 $58 +$2 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 23°C on April 29? Apr 30 $3 +$3 +109%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 24°C on April 29? Apr 28 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C or higher on April 25? Apr 27 $8 −$8 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 24, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Apr 27 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 24, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Apr 27 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 24, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Apr 27 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 24, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Apr 27 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 25, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Apr 27 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C or higher on April 26? Apr 26 $31 +$9 +29%
Solana Up or Down - April 25, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Apr 25 $3 +$1 +18%
Solana Up or Down - April 25, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Apr 25 $3 +$1 +23%
Solana Up or Down - April 25, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Apr 25 $3 +$1 +37%
Solana Up or Down - April 25, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Apr 25 $3 +$1 +23%
Solana Up or Down - April 25, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Apr 25 $3 +$1 +29%
Solana Up or Down - April 24, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Apr 25 $3 +$1 +21%
Solana Up or Down - April 24, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Apr 25 $3 +$1 +43%
Solana Up or Down - April 24, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Apr 25 $3 +$1 +34%
Solana Up or Down - April 24, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Apr 25 $3 +$1 +31%
Solana Up or Down - April 24, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Apr 25 $3 +$1 +19%
Solana Up or Down - April 24, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Apr 24 $3 +$1 +28%
Solana Up or Down - April 24, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Apr 24 $3 +$1 +26%
Solana Up or Down - April 24, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Apr 24 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 24, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Apr 24 $3 +$1 +31%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET SELL Down 55¢ $3 3m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $3 5m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET SELL Up 47¢ $2 5m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $4 6m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $2 14m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET SELL Down 61¢ $3 17m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 22m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET SELL Down 16¢ $2 31m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $2 31m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET SELL Up 76¢ $4 32m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $3 35m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $3 35m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET SELL Down 57¢ $3 36m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $3 37m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET SELL Down 88¢ $4 48m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $3 51m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET SELL Up 77¢ $4 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $3 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET SELL Down 41¢ $2 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $3 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET SELL Down 88¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $3 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET SELL Down 51¢ $3 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $3 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET SELL Up 48¢ $2 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $3 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET SELL Up 78¢ $4 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $4 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET SELL Up 64¢ $3 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $3 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records