Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T01:45:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
BD 0xbd6c…1e6d weather 1662 markets active 2h ago coverage 76d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 76d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$14 (+0%) realized +$8 · open +$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR59%break-even
Win rate65%1073W / 568L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day27.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$138now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days+$24
14 days−$278
30 days−$1,147
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 97% −$3
other 3% −$36
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +59%
net ROI/market (all)-7.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 83 +5.7% -4.3% 65% 64% -3.3%
≤30d 701 -18.5% -26.3% 49% 49% -30.6%
≤90d 1641 +2.5% -7.2% 65% 59% -9.9%
all 1641 +2.5% -7.2% 65% 59% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover27.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.2% 59% -9.9%
10% ← realistic here -16.1% 49% -18.5%
15% -24.2% 19% -26.4%
20% -31.7% 12% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +14% → late -9% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$6 · ×0.52 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.99 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

76d coverage
Net worth$138
Realized+$8
Unrealized+$6
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses1073 / 568
Open positions21
Markets (closed)1641 / 1662
History coverage76d ⚠
Avg bet$6
Trades / day27.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 21 History 1641 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 16? Yes 22¢ 42¢ $10 $19 +$9 (+93%)
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 16? Yes 29¢ 42¢ $9 $14 +$4 (+45%)
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 17? Yes 30¢ 34¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+15%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 17? Yes 31¢ 32¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 16? Yes 30¢ 30¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on June 17? Yes 24¢ 30¢ $8 $9 +$2 (+23%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on June 17? Yes 29¢ 28¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on June 17? Yes 29¢ 24¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-19%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on June 15? No 78¢ 100¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+28%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on June 16? No 75¢ 100¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+33%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on June 16? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $4 $5 +$0 (+6%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C on June 17? No 74¢ 92¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+24%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on June 16? No 80¢ 83¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 17? No 76¢ 75¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 18°C on June 16? No 78¢ 72¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-7%)
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on June 16? No 67¢ 59¢ $4 $4 −$1 (-12%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 16? No 72¢ 66¢ $4 $3 −$0 (-8%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 16? No 79¢ 60¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-23%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on June 16? Yes 15¢ 10¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-28%)
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on June 16? Yes 18¢ 5¢ $9 $2 −$6 (-73%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 16? Yes 22¢ 8¢ $4 $1 −$3 (-66%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 15? Jun 15 $4 +$1 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 17°C on June 15? Jun 15 $4 +$1 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 80-81°F on June 15? Jun 15 $4 +$2 +42%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 15? Jun 15 $9 +$26 +277%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 15? Jun 15 $3 +$7 +222%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 14? Jun 15 $2 +$5 +286%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 14? Jun 15 $4 +$1 +27%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on June 14? Jun 15 $4 +$1 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 14? Jun 15 $4 +$1 +25%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on June 14? Jun 15 $4 +$1 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 14? Jun 15 $10 −$6 -55%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on June 14? Jun 14 $3 +$1 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 16? Jun 14 $10 −$1 -12%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 14? Jun 14 $4 +$1 +27%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 14? Jun 14 $4 +$1 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 14? Jun 14 $4 +$1 +39%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on June 14? Jun 14 $4 +$1 +25%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 13? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on June 8? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 13? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 13? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 9? Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on June 13? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 13? Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on June 9? Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 13? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 24°C on June 13? Jun 14 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 18°C on June 11? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Ju Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 13? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 11? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 82-83°F on June 7? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 15? Jun 14 $10 −$3 -26%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 15? Jun 14 $4 −$1 -22%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 15? Jun 14 $4 $0 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 14? Jun 14 $10 +$29 +281%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 86-87°F on June 13? Jun 14 $4 +$1 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on June 13? Jun 13 $4 +$1 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on June 15? Jun 13 $8 −$5 -58%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 13? Jun 13 $4 +$1 +41%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $4 +$1 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on June 15? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -97%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju Jun 13 $4 −$4 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 20°C on June 15? Jun 13 $10 −$3 -30%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 15? Jun 13 $8 −$8 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 15? Jun 13 $4 −$4 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C on June 15? Jun 13 $8 −$8 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 12? Jun 13 $4 +$1 +30%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 82-83°F on June 12? Jun 13 $4 +$1 +27%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 15? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 17? BUY No 76¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on June 17? BUY Yes 24¢ $8 7h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on June 17? BUY Yes 29¢ $10 8h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C on June 17? BUY No 74¢ $4 8h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 17°C on June 15? SELL No 100¢ $5 9h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 80-81°F on June 15? SELL No 100¢ $6 9h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 15? SELL Yes 100¢ $36 9h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 15? SELL Yes 100¢ $10 9h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 17? BUY Yes 31¢ $10 13h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju BUY No 80¢ $4 14h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on June 17? BUY Yes 29¢ $9 18h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 18°C on June 16? BUY No 78¢ $4 20h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 17? BUY Yes 30¢ $10 20h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on June 16? BUY No 67¢ $4 20h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on June 16? BUY Yes 19¢ $9 20h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on June 16? BUY Yes 15¢ $4 20h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 16? SELL Yes 29¢ $9 27h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on June 16? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 30h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on June 15? BUY No 78¢ $4 34h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 16? BUY No 72¢ $4 37h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 16? BUY Yes 30¢ $10 37h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 15? SELL Yes 16¢ $8 38h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 15? SELL No 63¢ $3 38h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 15? SELL No 66¢ $4 38h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 14? SELL Yes 100¢ $39 38h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 80-81°F on June 15? BUY No 69¢ $4 38h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 16? BUY No 79¢ $4 40h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 17°C on June 15? BUY No 80¢ $4 41h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 16? BUY Yes 22¢ $10 43h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on June 16? BUY No 75¢ $4 44h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $138.11 · official $138.12 (match) · 3500 history records