Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T23:18:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
BD 0xbd6e…72a7 other 11 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Total PnL +$7 (+9%) realized +$18 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +39% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +7% what you keep after slip
Net edge+7%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate57%4W / 3L
Drawdown12%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day22.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit45%portable
Net worth$22now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$18
7 days+$18
14 days+$18
30 days+$18
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 65% +$17
other 35% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)+25.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +38.8% +25.6% 57% 57% +21.9%
≤30d 7 +38.8% +25.6% 57% 57% +21.9%
≤90d 7 +38.8% +25.6% 57% 57% +21.9%
all 7 +38.8% +25.6% 57% 57% +21.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover22.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +25.6% 57% +21.9%
10% ← realistic here +13.6% 57% +10.2%
15% +2.6% 43% -0.4%
20% -7.4% 43% -10.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 62% · top 2 83% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +35% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +39% · $-wt +35% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$1 · ×4.0 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×5.33 per $1 lost it wins $5.33
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$22
Realized+$18
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses4 / 3
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions4
Markets (closed)7 / 11
History coverage1d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day22.1
Drawdown12%
Kalshi-fit45%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Yes 34¢ 34¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-1%)
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Yes 29¢ 28¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-5%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-11%)
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-12%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Yes 20¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $21 +$14 +65%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -87%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $10 $0 -4%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $14 +$5 +32%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 +$3 +262%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $1 +$1 +103%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 29¢ $6 23m
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $15 25m
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $35 1h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 92¢ $16 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 1h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 41¢ $10 5h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 41¢ $10 6h
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 8h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 8h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $2 15h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $5 15h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 65¢ $1 23h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 65¢ $1 23h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 65¢ $1 23h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 65¢ $1 23h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 65¢ $5 23h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 64¢ $5 23h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 65¢ $5 24h
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 99¢ $2 24h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 25h
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $1 25h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $1 25h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $22.24 · official $22.24 (match) · 25 history records