Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T13:51:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BD 0xbd6e…b651 weather 808 markets active 2h ago coverage 160d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$149 (+0%) realized +$112 · open +$37
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate81%643W / 147L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$53per market
Trades / day6.6pace
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$1,429now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$59
7 days+$34
14 days+$113
30 days−$160
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 89% +$130
other 10% +$96
tech 1% −$62
finance 0% −$1
politics 0% −$93
economics 0% −$10
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-11.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 64 +0.2% -9.4% 94% 12% -8.9%
≤30d 247 -2.4% -11.7% 92% 11% -10.1%
≤90d 528 -0.2% -9.7% 90% 22% -9.0%
all 790 -1.6% -11.0% 81% 30% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.0% 30% -9.5%
10% -19.5% 14% -18.1%
15% -27.3% 6% -26.0%
20% -34.4% 3% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
61% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$18 · ×0.23 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.01 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

160d coverage
Net worth$1,429
Realized+$112
Unrealized+$37
Win rate (resolved)81%
Wins / losses643 / 147
Open positions18
Markets (closed)790 / 808
History coverage160d
Avg bet$53
Trades / day6.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 18 History 790 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 19? No 96¢ 100¢ $150 $157 +$7 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on June 19? No 95¢ 100¢ $100 $105 +$5 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 19? No 97¢ 99¢ $100 $103 +$3 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 34°C on June 19? No 98¢ 100¢ $100 $102 +$2 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 19? No 97¢ 98¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 20°C on June 19? No 99¢ 99¢ $100 $100 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on June 19? No 83¢ 81¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 32°C on June 19? No 98¢ 94¢ $100 $97 −$3 (-3%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 19? No 93¢ 92¢ $70 $69 −$1 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 83°F or below on June 19? No 82¢ 100¢ $50 $61 +$11 (+23%)
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on June 19? No 95¢ 99¢ $50 $52 +$2 (+5%)
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? No 94¢ 97¢ $50 $52 +$2 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C on June 19? No 97¢ 100¢ $50 $51 +$1 (+3%)
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? No 96¢ 95¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 21°C on June 19? No 87¢ 86¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on June 19? No 81¢ 97¢ $30 $36 +$6 (+20%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on June 20? No 87¢ 88¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 19? No 73¢ 100¢ $10 $14 +$4 (+37%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 20 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 19? Jun 19 $50 +$4 +7%
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 18? Jun 18 $100 +$4 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 18? Jun 18 $100 +$5 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 18? Jun 18 $20 +$2 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 18? Jun 18 $100 +$3 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 18? Jun 18 $100 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 96-97°F on June 17? Jun 18 $100 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 62-63°F on June 17? Jun 18 $200 +$8 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on June 17? Jun 18 $100 +$9 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 60-61°F on June 17? Jun 18 $200 +$5 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on June 17? Jun 18 $100 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 21°C on June 17? Jun 18 $50 +$4 +7%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C or below on June 17? Jun 17 $150 +$3 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on June 17? Jun 17 $20 +$2 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 34°C on June 17? Jun 17 $100 +$3 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 17? Jun 17 $100 +$4 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 17? Jun 17 $100 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on June 16? Jun 17 $100 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 78-79°F on June 16? Jun 17 $100 +$4 +4%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju Jun 17 $100 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 17 $10 +$4 +41%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Ju Jun 17 $100 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 78-79°F on June 16? Jun 17 $50 +$4 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on June 16? Jun 17 $30 +$5 +16%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 16? Jun 16 $100 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 16? Jun 16 $100 +$6 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C or below on June 16? Jun 16 $100 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 16? Jun 16 $100 +$4 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 16? Jun 16 $100 +$5 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 16? Jun 16 $100 +$3 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 80-81°F on June 15? Jun 16 $10 +$2 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 78-79°F on June 15? Jun 16 $100 +$4 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on June 15? Jun 16 $100 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ju Jun 16 $100 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on June 15? Jun 16 $100 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 19°C on June 15? Jun 16 $50 +$2 +4%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 15? Jun 15 $200 +$3 +2%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 15? Jun 15 $10 +$3 +33%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 15? Jun 15 $10 +$4 +43%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 15? Jun 15 $200 +$2 +1%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $20 +$1 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on June 15? Jun 15 $20 +$2 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on June 15? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on June 15? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 15? Jun 15 $15 −$15 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on June 14? Jun 15 $10 +$1 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on June 14? Jun 15 $100 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 15? Jun 14 $100 −$100 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 13? Jun 13 $100 +$5 +5%
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 13? Jun 13 $70 +$2 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on June 20? BUY No 87¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 19? BUY No 94¢ $50 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on June 19? BUY No 95¢ $100 1h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 19? BUY No 97¢ $100 13h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on June 19? BUY No 81¢ $30 13h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 83°F or below on June 19? BUY No 82¢ $50 13h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on June 19? BUY No 95¢ $50 13h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju BUY No 83¢ $101 13h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 19? BUY No 73¢ $10 13h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C on June 19? BUY No 97¢ $50 13h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on June 20? BUY No 87¢ $20 13h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 19? BUY No 93¢ $50 13h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 19? BUY No 90¢ $20 13h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 34°C on June 19? BUY No 98¢ $100 13h
Will the highest temperature in London be 32°C on June 19? BUY No 98¢ $100 13h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 20°C on June 19? BUY No 99¢ $100 13h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $50 13h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 19? BUY No 94¢ $50 13h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 19? BUY No 97¢ $100 32h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 19? BUY No 96¢ $100 32h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 18? BUY No 90¢ $20 32h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 21°C on June 19? BUY No 87¢ $50 32h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 18? BUY No 95¢ $100 32h
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 18? BUY No 96¢ $100 32h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 60-61°F on June 17? BUY No 98¢ $100 43h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 96-97°F on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $100 43h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $50 43h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 18? BUY No 97¢ $100 43h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 60-61°F on June 17? BUY No 97¢ $100 43h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on June 17? BUY No 91¢ $100 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,428.62 · official $1,428.58 (match) · 1825 history records